什么迫在眉睫的经济衰退?初始失业率自2021年11月以来保持不变
What Imminent Recession? Initial Jobless Unchanged Since Nov 2021

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-imminent-recession-initial-jobless-unchanged-nov-2021

上周初请失业金人数意外地维持在低位,与2021年末的水平相当,表明劳动力市场强劲。虽然续请失业金人数略有上升,但仍与过去一年的范围一致。“大三州地区”(Deep TriState)的情况则较为复杂,初请失业金人数下降,但续请失业金人数上升,弗吉尼亚州受影响尤甚。 尽管首席执行官和评论员持续预测经济衰退,但全国数据显示就业市场依然强劲。这种差异引发了疑问:这些警告是否是战略性地试图影响特朗普的贸易政策和市场行为,以期在未来的关税谈判中占据优势?或者,首席执行官们是否对感知到的经济威胁反应不足,未能实施预期的裁员?经济预测与实际就业市场之间的脱节,描绘出一幅令人费解的当前经济形势图景。


原文

Another week, another bulletproof jobless claims print...

Just 221k Americans filed for jobless claims for the first time last week - a number that is the same level as it was in November of 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims rose last week but remain in the same range as they have been in for the last year...

Source: Bloomberg

Initial Claims in the 'Deep TriState' fell last week...

But, Continuing Claims in the 'Deep TriState' are rising...

Virginia is starting to feel the DOGE pain...

So, while the 'Deep TriState' is starting to see some jobs lost, the rest of the nation continues to show absolutely no signs at all of this imminent recession that CEOs and talking heads keep proclaiming is right around the corner.

Perhaps it is simply jawboning to keep the pressure on Trump to reverse his actions - and keep the pressure on the market to go down - when they all realistically know the Trump plan is to negotiate these terrifying tariff levels back to some normalization that levels the playing field for 'Murica?

Or are these CEOs simply asleep at the wheel - if you were the most terrified since Lehman... wouldn't you be firing people?

 

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