China's Robotaxi revolution is shifting into a higher gear. In May, we highlighted a Goldman Sachs note forecasting that 500,000 autonomous robotaxis would be operating across ten major cities by 2030. New data from the bank's analysts now show acceleration: a wave of new commercial operating licenses has been granted to Robotaxi operators.

A team of Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang and Verena Jeng wrote in a note to clients on Monday that companies including Pony AI, Baidu, WeRide, JinJiang Taxi, DaZhong Transportation, and SAIC Motor were granted Robotaxi licenses to operate intelligent connected vehicles in Shanghai. The licenses were announced during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference over the weekend. 

"In Shanghai, Robotaxi operators that have received licenses can operate fully driverless Robotaxi for public passengers and charge fares in the designated areas of Shanghai," said the analysts. 

This development led the analysts to maintain a bullish call on the industry: "We are positive on the expanding areas of Robotaxi commercial services to support the Robotaxi industry growth, along with enhanced technology, lower BOM cost for larger scale deployment, and ecosystem expansion across Robotaxi operators, car OEMs, asset owners." 

The key insight: Shanghai is emerging as a major hub for Robotaxi commercialization, while Chinese operators are aggressively expanding into global markets.

Highlights from the note:

Driverless Robotaxi services in Shanghai: Multiple Chinese Robotaxi operators have received new licenses during WAIC. Pony AI announced it received a permit for fully driverless commercial Robotaxi services in Shanghai Pudong New Area, and will start from Jinqiao and Huamu district first, then expand to other regions. Baidu received the driverless commercial Robotaxi services permit in Shanghai, and Baidu Apollo Go cooperates with DaZhong Transportation in Shanghai on Robotaxi operation. WeRide announced the company received a permit for driverless Robotaxi services through partnership with Chery and JinJiang Taxi in Shanghai Pudong. WeRide also showcased its new generation of Robotaxi model Chery CER, supported by WeRide One platform. SAIC IM Motor, SAIC Mobility and Johnson Taxi jointly announced the new demonstration and operation license, targeting to offer Robotaxi services between Shanghai International Tourism and Resorts Zone and Shanghai Pudong Intl. Airport.

Read-across to China Robotaxi market: We recently raised China Robotaxi TAM and expect China's Robotaxi market to reach US$14bn/ US$61bn in 2030E/ 2035E with fleet size at 535k/ 2.3m units in 2030E/ 2035E, supported by enhancing software/ hardware capability to improve Robotaxi's safety and ride experience. The accelerated commercialization of the Robotaxi market in Shanghai starting from PuDong New Area, echoes our view that Tier-1 cities wiill see faster ramp up in the initial stage, considering customer acceptance, regulatory support and better operational efficiency.

Overseas market in expansion: Chinese Robotaxi vendors are also accelerating their expansion to the overseas markets, which is supporting rising Robotaxi commercialization. In July, WeRide announced it launched its Robotaxi pilot service in Saudi Arabia Riyadh post the announcement of expansion into Saudi Arabia in May 2025 with support from the Transport General Authority. Pony AI announced Robotaxi road-testing in Luxembourg in July, post receiving the scientific testing permit from Luxembourg's Ministry of Mobility and Public Works for L4 autonomous driving in Apr this year. The initial Robotaxi testing began in the community of Lenningen of Luxembourg, then expanded to more areas.

Of the Robotaxi firms listed by the analysts, Pony AI stands out as the most interesting.

It designs, develops, and operates Level 4 fully autonomous Robotaxis. Yet shares of the Chinese company, which trades in the U.S., have remained mostly flat this year, despite all the AI and Robotaxi hype in recent months.

Related: 

Learn about North America's robotaxi market:

. . .