'Brace yourself for a big beat' is the message from BofA's almost omniscient analysts ahead of this morning's retail sales print for August with the GDP-driving Control Group expected to be particularly hot...
...and once again they nailed it with headline retail sales rising 0.6% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third strong monthly rise in a row (with July's print revised stronger) - leading to a 5.0% YoY rise...
Source: Bloomberg
Core retail sales growth YoY is also surging...
Source: Bloomberg
Onleine sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing...
Source: Bloomberg
Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline..
Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY (the 11th straight month of annual gains in real spending)
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly a picture of a struggling consumer deal with hyperinflationary Trump tariffs?
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