Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Last week’s unprecedented NATO downing of Russian drones over Poland, which this analysis here argues was due to jamming causing them to radically veer off course, drew wider attention to the dueling military drills in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE).

The day before the incident, RT informed their audience that Poland, Lithuania, and eight other NATO allies in Latvia were carrying out three separate drills timed to coincide with Russia and Belarus’ then-upcoming Zapad 2025 ones in that latter state.

To illustrate the mismatch between each side, Poland’s, Lithuania’s, and Latvia’s drills respectively involve 30,000, 17,000, and 12,000 for a little less than 60,000 total troops compared to Zapad 2025 only involving 13,000 troops from Russia and Belarus. Observers should also know that Belarus only has around 60,000 servicemen (48,000) and border guards (12,000) in total so these NATO drills on its western and northern borders comprise the same number of troops as its armed forces.

It's little wonder then that Russia earlier transferred tactical nukes to Belarus with the right to use them in self-defense and is planning to deploy hypersonic Oreshnik missiles there too for deterrence purposes. NATO as a whole and in particular its three aforesaid members who hosted the latest drills believe that Belarus is the “weak link” in Russia’s regional security matrix and thus think they can intimidate it via large-scale drills into “defecting” to the West after summer 2020’s attempted Color Revolution failed.

This plot won’t succeed due to Russia’s Article 5-like mutual security guarantees for Belarus, its abovementioned tactical nuke and Oreshnik deployments there, and President Alexander Lukashenko striking up a surprising friendship with Trump via his role in trying to facilitate a grand deal with Putin. Nevertheless, none of this means that NATO will abandon its intimidation campaign against Belarus, ergo the importance of regular joint Russian-Belarusian drills in order to visibly demonstrate deterrence.

These same drills are then deliberately misportrayed by the West as aggressively intentioned and consequently exploited as the pretext for staging their own much larger ones at the same time for faux deterrence purposes that thinly veil their aggressive motives against Belarus and Russia by extension. This dynamic isn’t new but has been dishonestly dramatized by the West since the start of the special operation for maximum domestic fearmongering purposes that advance the elite’s geopolitical agenda.

Given these stakes, it’s expected that they’ll maintain this dynamic even after the Ukrainian Conflict ends, which’ll keep NATO-Russian tensions high for the indefinite future. The Western elites might also have economic interests in doing so since this’ll serve as the impetus for accelerating construction of the “EU Defense Line” along NATO’s borders with Russia and Belarus. Knowing how corrupt the West is, it should be assumed that some officials have invested in companies involved in this megaproject.

The new normal of dueling military drills in CEE is therefore driven by the Western elite’s geopolitical interests in fearmongering about Russia and their economic ones in enriching themselves from this. Russia won’t unilaterally suspend these drills since doing so could further embolden Western warmongers and inadvertently prompt Belarus into panicking that it might soon be “sold out”. The ball is thus in NATO’s court whether or not to maintain this dynamic, but all indications suggest that it will.