Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Historically, no one really wins a government shutdown. But JD Vance might. In the 24 hours after Senate Democrats voted against a continuing resolution to keep the federal lights on, the vice president quickly became the face of the White House counterargument.

Vance began the day on Fox and Friends to blast Democrats for taking the government “hostage.” By midmorning, he was rallying the MAGA base during an appearance on The Ben Shapiro Show, where he predicted that Democratic resolve was “cracking.” In the afternoon, the vice president made a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room.

Reporters were only tipped off moments before when an advance staffer set up the ceremonial flag of the vice president behind the podium. According to sources familiar with the day’s planning, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt invited Vance to meet the press in person.

The shutdown may amount to the first real crisis of the second Trump administration. The White House feels they have the upper hand because they are not the ones who caused it and because they have an ace up their sleeve in Vance.

Another source familiar with the strategy told RealClearPolitics that the vice president “is widely known as the administration’s bulldog, a natural, excellent messenger, maintains good relationships with his former Senate colleagues, and served in the Senate throughout multiple government funding debates.”

“It only makes sense for Vance to help President Trump drive this fight home,” they added. And if Vance succeeds as the administration’s point man in that debate, it could go a long way towards further cementing the expectation that Trump’s apprentice will become his MAGA heir.

But the squabble in question is a little different than the normal brinksmanship over government funding, in large part because of who currently occupies the Oval Office. At the heart of the battle is a policy dispute over extending Obamacare subsidies and restoring Medicaid cuts that Republicans made in the One Big Beautiful Bill, the president’s marquee domestic policy achievement.

Trump alleges that, in exchange for keeping the government open, Democrats are demanding that the federal government provide healthcare to illegal immigrants. Democrats counter that Republicans are lying because illegal immigrants cannot receive Medicare or Medicaid. As part of the OBBB, Republicans put up additional barriers to ensure, in large part, that non-citizens do not receive those benefits. They say that if the subsidies were restored, then millions of immigrants, who entered the U.S. illegally but were paroled by the Biden administration, would again have access to taxpayer-funded healthcare.

Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, pushed back: “Undocumented immigrants are not eligible to enroll in federally funded health coverage under existing law or Democrats’ funding proposal – but millions of American citizens will see their health care premiums double next year if Republicans keep refusing to act.”

As thorny as it is complicated, the fight centers around who exactly is “lawfully present” in the U.S. In short, Republicans made “lawfully present” immigrants ineligible for Obamacare subsidies, and now Democrats want to roll back that restriction. Into that thorny briar patch enters Vance.

“They say, ‘We’re not actually trying to give healthcare benefits to illegal aliens,’" Vance said of Democrats during his Fox News interview. “And here’s why it’s not true.” The vice president then pointed to two Biden-era actions, one that made immigrants eligible for emergency healthcare at hospitals and another that granted parole and Obamacare subsidies to millions of immigrants.

“So it’s not something that we made up,” he added. “It’s not a talking point. It is in the text of the bill that they initially gave to us to reopen the government. It’s preposterous for them to run away from it now.”

Procedural fights over funding the government do not normally move voters to the polls. But Trump has forced the political fight into the cultural zeitgeist when he posted an AI-generated video of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, complete with a fake mustache and sombrero. The Democrat called the images “racist” and “bigoted.” Vance laughed them off.

“I’ll tell Hakeem Jeffries right now, I make this solemn promise to you that if you help us reopen the government, the sombrero memes will stop,” the vice president told reporters. “And I’ve talked to the president of the United States about that.”

More than memes, the debate could have future political implications for Vance. The fight isn’t just about turning the lights back on. Longstanding conservative orthodoxy could shift in the process. The White House has told Democrats that they are willing to negotiate over Obamacare premiums but only after the government is reopened.

“Hopefully we can convince the president and others we can’t do that,” Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, told National Review of the possibility of continuing the Democratic extension of Obamacare subsidies. “I know people like me are vastly outnumbered here.”

Asked if the party that ran on repealing Obamacare for decades would actually extend Obamacare subsidies, Vance told RCP that the administration wants to ensure citizens have access to healthcare and “we are willing to have that conversation.”

“But I think it’s important to bracket that health care policy conversation,” the vice president clarified, “because it’s separate from the government shutdown.”

For now, the vice president is front and center in the shutdown conversation. Democrats have concluded as much. This includes California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential Vance opponent in the coming 2028 presidential election. A sign of the current digital discourse: Newsom posted a deep-fake video of Vance dressed like and sounding like an Oompa Loompa.