US futures are weaker following the best day for the S&P500 in almost a month and the Nasdaq's best day since late May. The market frontran the catalyst: late on Monday the Senate passed its funding bill, and the House is expected to vote on Weds, as it always eventually does, especially since it has Trump’s full support. The government reopening will give us September data over the next few weeks, but Oct data may skipped as the government  moves on to November. As of 8:00am S&P futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slide 0.5%, with Mag7/Semis/AI themes all are under pressure as NVDA (-1.5%) saw major shareholder SoftBank exit its entire stake to play other AI themes and CRWV (-8.9%) cut is forecast which it blamed on AI supply chain bottlenecks that triggered customer fulfilment delays. USD is flat as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. Commodities are higher led by Energy and Metals. Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Business Survey, ADP’s new weekly job report, and AMD’s analyst day.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower as Nvidia falls 1.6% after SoftBank Group sold its stake in the chip giant (Apple 0.0%, Microsoft -0.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta Platforms -1.2%, Tesla -0.7%)

• BigBear.ai (BBAI) jumps 18% after the software firm reported revenue for the third quarter that beat Wall Street estimates.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 10% after the cloud-computing provider reported its third-quarter results and said a data-center delay would impact fourth-quarter expectations.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares fall 7% as the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss reported a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 4% after the recently merged media company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures.
• RealReal (REAL) rises 15% after the online marketplace for luxury goods boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to beat the average analyst estimate.
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) falls 3% after the quantum-computing firm reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 9% after the space-transportation company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Surmodics (SRDX) rises 48% after saying a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking the company’s acquisition by GTCR.

In other corporate news, First Brands’ new CEO testified that within weeks of arriving, he uncovered evidence of massive financial fraud at the auto-parts company. Intel’s Chief Technology and AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI, where he’ll work on the startup’s infrastructure efforts. Paramount Skydance raised its post-merger savings target to $3 billion and will invest $1.5 billion in additional 2026 spend for Paramount+ streaming services and other initiatives.

The record-setting 41-day shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday, when the House is expected to vote on a funding measure passed by the Senate. For context, the S&P 500 has posted an average 2.3% gain in the month following the resolution of prior shutdowns, according to data crunched by CFRA’s chief market strategist Sam Stovall. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team repeats verbatim what we said two weeks ago, and reckons that a reopening of the government could release more liquidity into the market, supporting stocks. The recent rebound has seen bullish option activity pick up while spikes in volatility and hedging cost gauges have been modest.

“The valuations don’t look crazy but they do if there’s nervousness on the growth story,” Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of EMEA fundamental equities at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “That’s why I think the AI story, of which we do remain bullish, we do think while there is a lot further to go, it is likely to be a volatile ride.”

Additionally, Goldman yesterday noted that corporate buybacks are also providing a tailwind to equities now that the earnings season is over. US companies had authorized over $1.2 trillion of buybacks this year through October, an increase of 15% from last year, according to Goldman Sachs research — and November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks.

Traders have other reasons to feel more optimistic than last week, with the government shutdown looking close to being resolved, corporate buybacks ramping up and positive technicals. Another reason to be bullish is the latest short squeeze: derivatives strategists at Barclays say put open interest increased dramatically last week, causing the put-to-call open interest ratio to spike to near the highest level in two years. This likely reflects increased demand for downside protection, and any time the market jerks higher, all those downside hedges get monetized pushing risk even higher, and/or starting a short squeeze.

Still, doubts over the AI narrative are a fly in the ointment. CoreWeave sank about 9% in premarket trading after the company slashed its revenue forecast. The setback at CoreWeave, which rents out access to powerful artificial intelligence chips, gives investors another reason to worry about the strength of the tech industry at a time when there’s widespread anxiety over valuations. 

Another glitch in the positive mood is news that Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure, while CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said that he “can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.” Nvidia shares are slipping in premarket trading.

With earnings season now mostly over, out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed. 

European stocks gained for a second day with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.67% as sentiment was boosted by signs that the US government shutdown is nearing an end. UK stocks got a boost after the unemployment rate came in stronger than expected, sending the FTSE 100 up 0.8% and outperforming its regional counterparts. Vodafone shares rise as the telecommunications operator reported upbeat earnings. Consumer products and healthcare shares outperform, while insurance shares lag, with Munich Re a drag after cutting its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.  to 576.65 with 152 members down, 430 up, and 18  unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Vodafone shares rise as much as 7% after reporting positive organic service revenue growth in Germany after five consecutive quarters of decline.
• Adyen shares rise as much as 4.6% as the payments company set long-term guidance for about 20% net sales growth in years after 2026.
• Mandatum gains as much as 7.5% to hit a fresh record high, after third-quarter earnings beat estimates.
• Premier Group advances as much as 7.9%, to its highest intraday level on record, after the company reported first-half 2026 revenue that increased about 6% from the previous comparable period.
• Munich Re shares decline as much as 3.3%, among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.
• Inwit drops as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the tower operator said intense competition and limited cash generation are likely to continue impacting the Italian telecommunications market in the short term.
• Hensoldt shares fall as much as 9.3% as analysts find the German defense firm’s guidance for next year and for 2030 disappointing and say the company’s valuation is demanding.
• EDP shares fall as much as 5% after the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold its stake in the Portugese energy company.
• SKF shares drop as much as 7.7%, pulling back from a record high, after the world’s biggest maker of ball bearings outlined new financial targets that analysts at Jefferies described as “underwhelming.
• Lundbeck declines as much as 8.4% after Jefferies downgraded the Danish pharmaceutical firm to underperform from hold to account for its “upcoming patent cliff.”
• Hilton Food shares fall as much as 25%, hitting their lowest level in a decade, after the group cut its full-year guidance and warned profit progression in the next financial year may be “difficult.”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fluctuated, as investors weighed progress from ending the US government shutdown against lingering risks including stretched tech valuations and the prospect of renewed trade frictions.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains of as much as 0.5% to trade little changed. Korean chip stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. TSMC fell after posting its slowest monthly revenue growth in over a year, stoking concerns that the AI-driven stock rally has outpaced fundamentals. Sentiment weakened after the Wall Street Journal reported that China will fast-track rare earth export approvals for most firms but exclude those linked to the US military. In China, shares traded in narrow band, with the onshore benchmark dropping 0.9% amid concerns around the rare earth export controls.  While the US will start to receive rare earths, the additional mechanisms to restrict access by the US military “may increase the risk of derailing the current ‘trade truce’ between the two countries,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee.

In Fx, the dollar slumped after ADP showed a 11K drop in jobs in the past week, while the pound is down 0.3% and is the weakest of the G-10 currencies.

In rates, Treasury futures slightly lower across the long-end of the strip. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to Veterans Day holiday. Small weakness seen in the long-end implies some bear steepening pressure on the curve, with long-bond and ultra-long bond futures lower by 6 to 7 ticks on the day. UK government bonds have rallied after the unemployment rate rose more than expected and separate tax-based data showed the number of employees on payroll fell more than forecast. Short-end gilts lead the advance, with UK 2-year yields falling 7 bps to 3.74% as traders boosted bets on an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England next month. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year note sale. IG dollar issuance slate empty, but expected to pick up again Wednesday. Verizon’s $11bn five-part deal headlined a nine-deal $19.25bn US investment-grade primary docket Monday. Issuers paid about 6bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.6 times covered,Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year notes, followed by $25 billion 30-year bonds Thursday. Monday’s 3-year note auction achieved solid results

In commodities, spot gold rises $23 to around $4,139/oz. WTI crude futures rise 0.4% to near $60.40 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 0.5%.

The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr on AI and innovation at 10:25pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.1%
• CAC 40 +0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.12%
• VIX +0.4 points at 17.95
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.53
• euro +0.1% at $1.1572
• WTI crude +0.3% at $60.3/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The Senate passed legislation on Monday night (vote was 60-40) to end the nation’s longest government shutdown, after a critical splinter group of Democrats joined with Republicans and backed a spending package that omitted the chief concession their party had spent weeks demanding. The measure goes next to the House, which is expected to take it up no sooner than Wednesday. NYT
• SoftBank has sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion, as the global tech investor shakes its pockets for cash to plow into its massive bet on OpenAI: WSJ
• Obamacare subsidies face an uncertain future as Democrats scramble to find Republican support for an extension before they expire at the end of 2025. BBG
• China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms. WSJ  
• India’s top refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russian oil for next month, people familiar said, signaling that Western sanctions and trade talks with the US are having a major impact on buying patterns. BBG
• Trump said the US is getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with India. BBG
• The U.K.’s jobs market continued to creak in the third quarter, making it more likely that the Bank of England will cut borrowing costs in December after it narrowly chose to keep rates on hold last week. UK saw a 20bp M/M uptick in the unemployment rate to 5% (vs. 4.8% in Aug and ahead of the Street’s 4.9% forecast) while wage growth cooled. WSJ
• US flight cuts are set to increase even as Congress works to end the shutdown. The FAA has ordered airlines to scale back national operations by 6% today, a number to rise to 10% from Friday. BBG
• AI data centers draw political scrutiny as some accuse the infrastructure building boom of driving up electricity prices. WSJ
• CoreWeave shares fell premarket (CRWV -10% premkt) after the company cut its forecast due to a data center delay. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user’ system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.
• China's Foreign Minister Wang held a phone call with Canada's Foreign Minister on Tuesday and said China is willing to strengthen communication with Canada and willing to accelerate the resumption of exchanges and cooperation in various fields, while he added that diplomatic, commercial and other departments of their countries can properly resolve concerns.
• Switzerland is close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US and could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, via Reuters citing sources. Deal is not certain until US President Trump has given his approval.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally. ASX 200 faded its early advances as the outperformance in gold stocks and miners was negated by weakness in  tech and the top-weighted financial sector following CBA's modest earnings growth, while the improvement in Consumer Sentiment to a 7-year high did little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid currency weakness and as participants digested earnings results, but eventually wiped out all of its gains as sentiment soured. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid losses in tech, including Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, which failed to benefit, despite it being China's Singles' Day, which is the world's largest shopping event, as sales had begun weeks earlier in an effort to boost sluggish spending.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said they are aware that high inflation is weighing on private consumption, and that a weak yen pushes up prices through higher import costs. Kiuchi added they will expand and implement measures to cushion the impacts of higher prices, as well as continue to aim for wage growth exceeding inflation.
• China State Planner Official says private investment has slowed down this year. Adds that there's challenges in private investment. Energy official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in energy. There's plan to support Private Investment to flow to high value service sectors. Aims to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector. Some of the new policy-based financial tool allowed to support private investment in key areas.
• PBoC issues its Q3 monetary policy implementation report:. Policy: To implement appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen transmission of policy. To keep liquidity ample. To maintain FX flexibility and prevent overshooting risks. Will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates. Global Situation: External situation unstable and uncertain Economy: Economy faces may risks and challenges. To increase efforts to support consumption and tech innovation. To stabilise growth, jobs, and market expectations. Foundation for economic recovery needs to be enhanced. To maintain reasonable growth in total amount of finance. Need to consolidate economic recovery. Inflation: To maintain prices at reasonable level Banks: To reduce cost of bank's liability. To fend off financial systemic risks.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened stronger across the board and have held towards best levels throughout the European morning. The FTSE 100 outperforms today, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which has pressured the GBP and slightly increased odds of a December rate cut at the BoE. European sectors hold a positive bias, with notable strength in Consumer Products & Services, Health Care, and Construction. Gains in Consumer Products & Services are led by LVMH (+1.7%), after reports the company plans to open several flagship stores across China in December, amidst early indications of a regional recovery.

Top European News

• European Commission has begun setting up a new intelligence body under President Ursula von der Leyen, in an attempt to improve the use of information gathered by national spy agencies, according to FT.
• ECB's Elderson says "current [rate] level is appropriate, but we will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time". "Our monetary policy is in a good place. It’s true that the economic environment remains uncertain, so we cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path". Elderson cites risks of higher inflation from supply fragmentation and defence spending. "Among the risks of lower inflation, I would include the appreciation of the euro, which could reduce demand for euro area exports; and a re-routing to the euro area of products previously shipped to the United States". "We do, of course, monitor the euro’s exchange rate against other currencies because it could affect inflation". Elderson says policy should not undermine banking mergers. Elderson argues mergers must be judged on technical and prudential criteria.
• ECB's Vujcic says the risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Economically in a good place. Frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding. Consumers are still very cautious in Europe. Market valuations are stretched. A bit concerned that retail participation in stock markets are growing faster than hedge funds.
• BoE's Greene says risk management around inflation needs to influence policy views. Policy: Policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise. Not convinced that policy is meaningfully restrictive. Labour Market: Latest unemployment report is not great. Problems with the labour force survey make it hard to know what is happening. Inflation: Household inflation expectations are at the very top of expectations. Worried about inflation persistence. Wages: The weaker wage data is good news. Wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see. Latest data suggests that the disinflationary process is on track. Wages are still "way too high" given weak growth. Says the market pricing of 3.25-3.50% for the neutral rate is reasonable.

FX

• The DXY holds steady through the European session, mirroring the subdued tone from APAC trade, after a mild softening earlier in the week. Market reaction was muted to the Senate’s approval of the government funding bill—largely in line with expectations—with attention now turning to the House, where Speaker Johnson aims for a Wednesday vote on the stopgap measure. The DXY trades within a tight 99.60–99.74 band, comfortably inside Monday’s 99.46–99.74 range, with resistance seen at the November 7th high of 99.87. No move seen on lower-than-prior US NFIB; inner report suggested "many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so".
• EUR/USD remains directionless, confined to a narrow range amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone and with no move seen to the ZEW survey or to ECB commentary. Germany’s ZEW survey disappointed, with commentary noting that while government investment plans may offer short-term support, “structural problems continue to exist". ECB commentary offered little new insight: Vujčić said inflation risks are now broadly balanced, while Elderson reiterated that the current rate level is “appropriate,” stressing continued data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach. The pair trades comfortably within Monday’s 1.1541–1.1583 range
• GBP/USD slipped lower in early trade after a lacklustre overnight session, weighed by weaker-than-expected UK labour data. Employment contracted, the jobless rate ticked higher than expectations, while earnings ex-bonus matched forecasts. The release prompted a swift GBP/USD drop from 1.3153 to 1.3121, while EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8781 to 0.8804 within eight minutes. BoE rate expectations turned slightly more dovish, with a full 25bps cut now fully priced for February (vs. 98.8% pre-data). Post-data, BoE’s Greene noted the unemployment report was “not great” and cautioned that survey issues cloud the labour market picture. She added that policy “needs to be more restrictive than otherwise,” but remains unconvinced that current settings are “meaningfully restrictive". GBP/USD trades near the lower end of a 1.3116–1.3178 band
• USD/JPY ticked higher overnight, briefly reclaiming the 154.00 handle before paring gains as broader risk sentiment softened. The session has offered little in the way of fresh domestic catalysts, with price action largely dictated by cautious risk tone and subdued cross-asset moves. The pair continues to consolidate within a 154.03–154.49 range.
• The Antipodeans drifted lower through the APAC session, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains that were driven by improved risk sentiment. AUD/USD eased further from its 100DMA (0.6539) after encountering resistance at that level yesterday, with the pair trading within a 0.6515–0.6537 band.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury futures are essentially flat, after being pressured overnight; price action today is exceptionally thin, with volumes light as the US observes Veterans’ Day, where cash bond trading will be shut. Currently in a narrow 112-20 to 112-22+ range, with catalysts seemingly light for the remainder of the day, aside from the US NFIB Business Optimism Index and Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP. On the trade front, some progress between US-India with the POTUS suggesting they “are getting close”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Switzerland is near a deal to cut the US tariff on its exports to 15% from 39%, with an agreement possible within two weeks.
• Bunds are incrementally lower/flat and trade in a 129.97-129.11 range. Specifics are incredibly light heading into the ZEW survey, aside from a few ECB speakers' comments, which ultimately lacked surprises. To recap, Elderson said current rates are appropriate and will continue to take a data-dependent approach. Elsewhere, Vujcic said risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Price action today has been lacklustre. Initially bid on the release of the UK jobs report (discussed below), before being capped at and trading sideways for the remainder of the morning, awaiting ZEW data. That failed to budge Bunds – German ZEW Current/Economic Conditions were both weaker than expected.
• Gilts are the clear outperformers today, boosted following a poor regional jobs report, which has raised the odds of a December rate cut (-18bps vs -15.5bps pre-release). UK paper is currently trading in a 93.53 to 93.69 range, and with price action fairly lacklustre since the open. To recap the latest data, the figures were very poor; Employment Chance contracted by 22k (exp. 0k), whilst the unemployment rate ticked a little higher to 5% - interestingly, the 3M Avg. Earnings printed at 4.8% (exp. 5%). Overall, metrics are conducive to a cut in December, but the focus ultimately remains firmly on inflation developments, highlighted by Governor Bailey at the most recent confab. Following the report, Greene suggested that the “latest unemployment report is not great”, but described the wage data as “good news”. She also highlighted that policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise, citing worries re. inflation persistence.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks traded choppy throughout the APAC session but saw some strength as the European session got underway, as the risk sentiment remains high and attacks on Russian refineries continue. Just as reports that Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, crude benchmarks surged c. USD 0.60/bbl higher and are currently trading near session highs at USD 60.43/bbl and USD 64.43/bbl.
• Spot XAU has continued to bid higher as the European session got underway as participants hope for further Fed easing. XAU followed on from Monday’s trend day to a peak of USD 4149/oz during the APAC session before pulling back to a low of USD 4125/oz. As the session switched over, European traders haven’t yet managed to extend the day’s parameters but are currently trading near session highs at USD 4144/oz.
• Base metals remain rangebound amid a lack of market catalysts. 3M LME Copper gapped higher to open at USD 10.84k/t before oscillating in a tight USD 10.8k-10.86k/t band as the European session continued.
• Five big Indian refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russia oil for December, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
• UBS expects global gold demand this year and next to reach its strongest level since 2011.
• Commerzbank metals year-end forecasts: Copper USD 10,500/t (prev. 9,600/t). Aluminium USD 2,900/t (prev. 2,600/t). Zinc USD 3,000/t (prev. 2,800/t). Gold USD 4,200/oz. Nickel USD 15,000/t (prev. 16,000/t). Silver USD 50/oz. Platinum USD 1,700/oz. Palladium USD 1,400/oz.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump posted "It was an Honor to spend time with Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, the new President of Syria, where we discussed all the intricacies of PEACE in the Middle East, of which he is a major advocate. I look forward to meeting and speaking again. Everyone is talking about the Great Miracle that is taking place in the Middle East. Having a stable and successful Syria is very important to all countries in the Region."
• Turkish Foreign Minister said they discussed Syria and Gaza in talks with US and Syrian counterparts, US VP Vance, Trump aide Witkoff, and special envoy Barrack. He added that US officials understand that Syria needs to be united, and that problems in south and north Syria risk dividing the country.
• US is reportedly planning to build a large military base in Israel’s Gaza border region, according to Israeli press citing Israeli sources; the facility would be used by international forces operating in Gaza to help maintain the ceasefire. Facility could accommodate several thousand soldiers. They estimated the project’s budget at roughly USD 500mln.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• Ukrainian drone attack damaged civilian infrastructure in Russia's Saratov, according to the regional governor.
• Russian security services reportedly foiled a joint Ukrainian-British operation to hijack a Russian MiG-31 equipped with a hypersonic missile, according to RIA.

Geopolitics: Other

• Thai Defence Minister announced the halting of ceasefire implementation steps and return of Cambodian prisoner of war, while he said they will explain to Malaysia and the US regarding the Thai decision on the ceasefire.

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