Recent online squabbles and upheavals among MAGA related influencers and politicians might lead a person to believe that the conservative base was beginning to crack.  In fact, in less than a year of Trump's return to the White House an army of web personalities have taken to social media to declare MAGA "dead."

The latest feud between Trump and libertarian favorite Marjorie Taylor Greene has stirred the soup, but there is a reason why MTG chose to resign and the latest polls explain her decision clearly.  Trump's support among Republicans remains steadfast and MTG had little hope of remaining in office without his backing. 

There are no divisions in Trump's base.  In fact, Trump has the strongest continuing support within his base compared to any president in the past 25 years with no deviation or decline in the past 6 months.

Harry Enten's data is derived from an aggregate of independent polling groups including Quinnipiac, AP-NORC, Marquette and Gallup. Even though he works for CNN, his analysis has been surprisingly fair and surprisingly untainted by typical far-left bias.  Congressional approval ratings are another matter and remain dismally low (no one likes congress), but Trump is not suffering from the kind of plunge that commentators claim.

Critics argue that Trump's problem going into mid-terms is not his base (even though the constant online narrative has been that his base is walking away from him).  Rather, they say that disapproval among independents is going to undermine the slim MAGA majority in congress in 2026.   

Trumps overall approval rating among independents dropped from 46% to 33% from January to May according to Gallup.  That said, it has remained steady at 33% for the past six months with no change.  None of the latest drama has had any effect.  The initial drop in support among independents is predominantly blamed on economic concerns (the stagflation fight continues to be Trump's greatest obstacle).

But the change in dynamics among independents and Trump is not as straightforward as it seems.

Democrats continue to lose a significant number of voters who are switching to independent status.  Republicans changing their status to independent are negligible.  In 2024 exit polls, self-identified independents made up 34% of voters (up from 26% in 2020), while Democrats fell to 31% (from higher shares pre-2020).  Edison data shows 11.2 million fewer Democratic voters and 11 million more independents compared to 2020, despite overall turnout dips.  The Democrat Party continues to lose its base to the independents monthly since the election.

In other words, the independent voting demographic is growing because of Democrats leaving the fold.  They don't like Trump but they don't necessarily like the Democratic Party either.  Former White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre recently switched to "independent", highlighting the fact that independents are experiencing a surge of far-left radicals.  

This doesn't explain away the entire drop in independent support for Trump, but it needs to be taken into account.  At bottom, Trump's support has not substantially diminished, despite ongoing conflicts between his supporters over various policies. 

In many cases the angst over the Administration is often due to voters demanding immediate results on the economy; a misplaced expectation given that it took decades for the current negative economic tide to develop.  No political leader has the ability to change these conditions quickly (if at all). 

Few if any conservative voters have changed their minds about mass deportations, the cuts to government programs like USAID and the Department of Education, nor the majority of Trump's policies.  Beyond the economy, any losses among Republicans in congress will be caused by their own actions (or lack of action), not because of any "break" within the conservative base against Trump.

Will voters forget how horrific life was not long ago under the Democrats and Joe Biden?  It's unclear if Democrats will have an edge during the midterms, but influencers continue to predict a blue wave next year.  It's important to remember, though, that the internet and social media are not necessarily real life.  Trump's election wins are a testament to that fact.