“提升美国实力”需要50万高技能工人
"Power Up America" Needs 500,000 Highly Skilled Workers

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/power-america-needs-500000-highly-skilled-workers

人工智能投资推动的数据中心快速扩张,受阻的不是资金或土地,而是关键的短缺——特别是**熟练劳动力和足够的电力**。虽然特朗普政府正在加速核电项目以解决电网容量问题,但一个更大的问题正在出现:缺乏合格的工人。 高盛估计,到2030年将需要超过**50万名新的电力行业工人**,*加上*额外的**30万名用于数据中心建设和运营人员**,以满足不断增长的电力需求。劳动力老龄化和熟练劳动力减少加剧了这种压力。 问题不在于需要非熟练劳动力,而在于需要具备建筑、电网扩展、发电厂运营(尤其是核电)和数据中心维护等方面的专业知识。该报告建议需要转变职业重点,提倡职业培训以及工程、能源系统和核科学等领域的学位,而非那些实用性有限的领域。本质上,“为美国提供电力”需要一支具备实践技能的劳动力,而这目前尚未满足。

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原文

We've already pointed out that money isn't the problem in America's unprecedented data center construction buildout. Big Tech's AI capex splurge is effectively endless thanks to "circle-jerk" vendor-financing schemes, and land is plentiful.

The real bottleneck? First, it was power - or rather, the lack of it - as the grid struggles to hook up hyperscalers sprinting toward ever larger and more power-hungry AI server racks.

Beyond a power grid already stretched thin due to limited capacity, the Trump administration is now scrambling to fix this with an accelerated nuclear push before the 2030s. We've identified another problem that central bankers can't print their way out of: skilled labor. And no, we're not talking about the need for cheap, unskilled migrant labor. We're talking about a highly skilled workforce required to build, run, and maintain data centers, as well as expand the power grid and operate nuclear power plants. 

In early October, Goldman noted that data center buildouts will require an additional 300,000 workers across manufacturing, construction, and operations to meet power demand by the end of the decade.

Now, Goldman analysts led by Carly Davenport are telling clients that the power industry will need over 500,000 new workers by 2030 to meet the surging electricity demand from data centers and the broader economy-wide electrification push.

Davenport explained:

"The US power industry is poised to require >500,000 new workers by 2030 or a significant acceleration in labor productivity. This growth enters a labor force already facing strain from aging and a limited pipeline of skilled labor. Labor-demand challenges to meet levels of US power-demand growth not seen since the 1990s are rising amid the Demographic Dilemma — a shrinking productive labor pool tasked to support an aging population — which raises the risk of G7 labor-force strains. This is elevating investor/corporate debates on industry execution and whether/when rising power, equipment, and labor costs could constrain growth."

Generational growth to achieve 2.6% CAGR in electricity demand through 2030 could require ~510,000 US power and grid jobs (a 28% increase versus the 2023 US energy workforce).

"We estimate the need for ~300,000 incremental jobs across manufacturing, construction, and operations/maintenance (Exhibit 10)…

…plus an additional 207,000 across US transmission and distribution (Exhibit 11)."

What's critical to understand is that the trillions in investment flooding into the economy through the 2030s will require far more than steel, concrete, silicon chips, and copper wire. They will demand a massive expansion of highly skilled workers.

Right now, there is a terrible oversupply of college-educated workers and a deepening shortage of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs - a widening gap highlighted in a recent Goldman note by analyst Evan Tylenda.

Our advice for young people struggling to find a real job: ditch the useless gender-studies degree and learn a trade that's becoming increasingly valuable to "Powering America." For college students who haven't been brainwashed by Marxism and wokism, aim for fields that will actually matter, such as engineering, energy systems, and nuclear science - all of which will be in red-hot demand in the 2030s.

The labor market is shifting fast. It's time to move with it and choose a career that won't be automated into oblivion anytime soon.

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