美国工业生产年增幅创三年最大,但产能利用率放缓。
US Industrial Production Sees Biggest Annual Gain In 3 Years Despite Slowing Capacity Utilization

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-industrial-production-sees-biggest-annual-gain-3-years-despite-slowing-capacity

首先,这是9月份的数据。但我们对今天早些时候发布的工业生产和制造业产出数据给出了“一般”的评价。工业生产环比仅增长0.1%(符合预期),高于8月份下调后的环比下降0.3%。按年率计算,生产增长1.62%——自2022年11月以来最佳水平……美国制造业产出在9月份没有变化(低于8月份的环比增长0.1%),但与工业生产一样,这支持了1.5%的年率增长,为2022年4月以来最高水平……但这份报告(承认有滞后性)的主要信息是产能利用率疲软,9月份仅为75.9%(远低于8月份的77.4%,该数据已下调至75.9%,并且低于预期的77.2%)。来源:彭博社正如我们所见,就业数据表明,美国制造业经济在整个第三季度的大部分时间里都处于停滞状态。这无疑支持下周降息,并朝着更多降息的方向发展(目前尚未反映在市场价格中)。

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原文

First things first, this is data for September. But we would given this morning's Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data a 'meh' ranking.

Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM (as expected) up from the downwardly revised 0.3% MoM decline in August. On a YoY basis, production rose 1.62% - its best since Nov 2022...

US Manufacturing output was unchanged in September (slowing from the 0.1% MoM rise in August), but, like IP, that supported a 1.5% YoY rise in output, its highest level since April 2022...

But the big headline of this (admittedly lagged) report is the weakness in Capacity Utilization at just 75.9% in September (well below the 77.4% print for August, which was revised down to 75.9%, and a big miss versus the 77.2% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Just as we have seen with the employment data, it appears the US Manufacturing economy has flatlined for much of Q3. Certainly supportive of a cut next week and trend toward more cuts (which are not priced in for now).

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