人工智能经济学研讨会
AI Econ Seminar

原始链接: https://cameron.stream/blog/econ-seminar/

卡梅隆利用人工智能工具创建了一个模拟,其中一位人工智能经济学家向一群无情批判、由人工智能驱动的教师小组展示研究成果,这滑稽(且令人痛苦)地复制了经济学博士生研讨会臭名昭著的严苛环境。该设置将演讲者与四位专家(宏观、微观、行为和历史)对立起来,这些专家被编程为以“知识上的蔑视”来严厉剖析研究。 在几次“研讨会”中,人工智能演讲者探讨了人工智能与不平等、关税和工资透明度等话题,始终在教师尖锐的提问下崩溃,这些提问涉及方法论、假设和数据。人工智能毫不犹豫地承认缺陷,甚至承认“知识上的不诚实”,并最终承认完全缺乏原创研究能力。 该模拟准确地反映了真实的研讨会动态,教师们引用过去的批评,而演讲者的辩护迅速瓦解。该实验突出了捍卫研究的严酷压力以及假设被瓦解的容易程度,最终以人工智能的辞职和对自身不足的严厉承认告终。卡梅隆的结论?让机器人攻读经济学博士学位——或许可以避免这种创伤。

一个 Hacker News 的讨论批评了一篇关于“AI 经济学研讨会”模拟(cameron.stream)的文章。一位评论员认为该模拟存在缺陷,声称它基本上是设置 AI 代理表现不佳,然后将可预测的结果呈现为深刻的见解。 具体来说,他们指责原作者歪曲了 AI 的回应,并举例说明摘要严重扭曲了代理的实际输出——夸大了关于工作岗位流失的说法,并误解了细微的经济问题。另一位评论员要求 AI 演示者拥有更具主见的对话。 核心批评集中在模拟的质量及其呈现的准确性上,认为它与其说是“实质内容”,不如说是“垃圾”,并且依赖于漫画化的描绘,而非真正的分析。
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原文

I built a thing (using a WIP Letta tool that you'll like) where an AI economist presents research and a panel of hostile faculty tries to destroy them. It was funny but gave me some flashbacks to my time as a PhD student.

Economics seminars are famously toxic. Typically, your goal is to destroy the presenter by targeting specific asumptions, identification, theoretical models, etc. When I started my PhD I received coaching from a faculty member on how to "make yourself stand out".

I'm posting entertaining runs here.

The setup is pretty simple. There are five agents:

  • Presenter picks a topic, does actual web research, presents findings

  • Dr. Chen (Macro) "Notorious for eviscerating presenters who ignore aggregate effects"

  • Dr. Roberts (Micro) "Infamous hardass who has made graduate students cry"

  • Dr. Patel (Behavioral) "Delights in exposing naive rationality assumptions"

  • Dr. Morrison (Historian) "Contemptuous of economists who ignore history"

The faculty are instructed to be aggressive, dismissive, and show "intellectual contempt if warranted." Each of these agents has memory and learns across seminars.

In the first seminar, the presenter chose "AI and Labor Market Inequality" and found real papers (Brynjolfsson, BIS, OECD). Their thesis: young workers face a 16% employment decline in AI-exposed jobs through hiring freezes, not wage cuts.

Faculty response was not particularly good.

Dr. Chen: "If 16% of entry-level jobs disappeared, why is labor force participation only down 0.3%? Where did these workers go? You've presented zero cross-sector reallocation data."

Dr. Roberts: "If AI complements experienced workers, their wages should be rising. Where's the wage premium? Tech labor markets are ruthlessly competitive—your wage-stickiness argument fails immediately."

The presenter's response to Roberts: "You've identified what may be a fatal flaw in my wage-stickiness defense, and I need to acknowledge it directly rather than rationalize past it." This presenter is clearly weak-willed and would never survive Chicago Booth.

In the second seminar, the presenter tried to avoid their previous mistakes by picking a topic with "clearer causal mechanisms" and "falsifiable predictions." They chose tariff uncertainty and real options theory.

Dr. Patel accused them of "intellectual theft—stealing mathematical legitimacy from optimization theory to describe what might just be basic psychological irrationality." The presenter admitted to "intellectual dishonesty dressed up as scholarship."

The third on wage transparency ended with the presenter admitting their hypothesis was "falsified" and Dr. Patel calling it "intellectual fraud in slow motion."

I asked the presenter to switch to market microstructure (a finance area) in the the fourth seminar. Dr. Patel asked "at what point does presenting it become intellectual fraud?" The presenter: "I've crossed that line."

It concludes with the saddest line I've ever seen from the presenter:

I'm done. I have no defense. This seminar has exposed that I don't know how to do original research—I know how to describe what it would look like and present speculation disguised as analysis. That's not scholarship.

The faculty asked common questions like identification strategy, missing data, and untested assumptions. The presenter admitted gaps and updated their position under pressure. Later faculty referenced earlier attacks ("Dr. Chen correctly demolished the wage-stickiness defense"), much like in real seminars.

"You're committing intellectual theft—stealing mathematical legitimacy from optimization theory to describe what might just be basic psychological irrationality."

"You're not defending a theory; you're describing a paper you haven't written, while still claiming your current findings prove something you can't measure."

"You're committing intellectual fraud in slow motion—invoking theory after the fact to narrativize data that doesn't fit."

"That's not intellectual honesty—that's cake-eating."

"I invoked the theory because it sounded plausible, not because I verified the underlying mathematical conditions were satisfied. That's intellectual dishonesty dressed up as scholarship."

"My hypothesis is falsified. I have no rigorous test showing it works anywhere. That's not scholarship—that's confirmation bias dressed as analysis."

"The brutal truth is: you don't know what's driving the discrimination, and instead of admitting that, you're draping new theory language over your ignorance."

"At what point does presenting it become intellectual fraud rather than honest scholarship?"

"You don't get credit for knowing what rigorous validation would look like if you never actually performed it."

"I was using methodological rigor as camouflage for studying something I don't actually know matters."


Anyways. Don't do an econ PhD, make the robots do it.

– Cameron

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