约翰·米尔斯海默论伊朗策略
John Mearsheimer On The Iran Playbook

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/john-mearsheimer-iran-playbook

地缘政治分析家约翰·米尔斯海默认为,中东正在发生重大转变,像沙特阿拉伯这样的海湾国家正在暗中反对美国/以色列试图改变伊朗政权的努力。这代表着长期的逊尼派-什叶派对抗可能出现缓和,因为海湾国家认为它们已经基本实现了目标——削弱叙利亚阿萨德等主要对手,并削弱真主党的力量。 米尔斯海默认为,海湾国家现在认为美以联盟,而非伊朗,是对地区稳定的更大威胁。他们担心进一步的动荡,可能重蹈叙利亚的覆辙,只会助长西方和以色列鲁莽的政策。最近的事件,包括被认为即将对伊朗发动袭击,正通过这种视角来看待。 本质上,海湾国家优先考虑一个稳定(即使可能具有对抗性)的伊朗,而不是一个由外部势力控制的混乱的伊朗。这标志着重大的战略调整,可能对该地区产生深远的影响。

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原文

According to a recent podcast appearance by geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, the Arab Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia (the Gulf Cooperation Council) are increasingly behind the scenes pushing pack against those who advocate for regime change in Iran. This marks a serious potential de-escalation in what is a decades-long (or even centuries long) Sunni-Shia rivalry and war for influence in the broader Middle East. In a sense, the pro-Sunni Gulf-NATO axis has already 'won' - Assad was overthrown in Syria, and Hezbollah's leadership was decimated last year - now less a threat to Israel and also Gulf interests. 

Dr. Mearsheimer days ago appeared on on "Judging Freedom" talking with the Judge about a variety of topics, but most importantly on the evolving situation in Iran. As Mearsheimer describes, he laid out his thinking on:

1) what the US and Israel were trying to do in Iran — upend the regime and wreck the country;

2) how we planned to do it — with the usual playbook;

3) why the strategy failed;

4) why the US has not bombed Iran when it appeared a few days ago that an attack was imminent;

5) whether Israel planned to attack Iran with the US or the US planned to attack alone; and

6) what the strategic consequences are of what is happening in Iran.

On this last point, there is growing evidence that the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are more and more coming to view the US-Israeli tag team - not Iran - as the greatest threat to stability in the Middle East.

If true, wrecking Iran and turning it into another Syria would just further embolden Israel and the US to pursue reckless policies in the region, which would not be good for the Gulf states.

Already, Israeli warplanes have attacked Syria literally hundreds of times since the new Jolani/Sharaa regime came to power. This was part of a divide and conquer Israeli strategy, and to ensure Damascus can never again be a threat.

While Israel is appearing to 'tolerate' the new Sunni hardline government, it remains clear that Syria has been more weakened than ever, with no more anti-air defenses to speak of (after Assad had the most feared Russian anti-air system in the region). Now only Iran is left standing.

Could the West and Israel now be ready to unleash the 'Syria proxy war playbook' on the Islamic Republic in the Persian heartland? Is that what the least two weeks have been about? Mearsheimer and Napolitano address this issue and more. Watch above.

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