精准投注：求职的另一种方法

精准投注：求职的另一种方法
Targeted Bets: An alternative approach to the job hunt

原始链接: https://www.seanmuirhead.com/blog/targeted-bets

## 艰难就业市场中的精准求职当前的科技就业市场需要从广泛申请转向**精准选择**。不要申请无数职位，而是专注于5-10个你真正渴望的机会——那些与你的兴趣相符、竞争较少或能利用现有关系（共同学校、家乡等）的机会。成功取决于*每次*申请的投入。这意味着主动联系在职员工（跟进至关重要——预计需要发送多封邮件！），对于小型公司，甚至直接联系CEO。**不要索要推荐信**，而是专注于展示你的价值和真诚兴趣。这种策略能显著提高成功率；将成功率从1%提高到10%意味着申请10份工作而不是100份。这个原则不仅适用于求职，也体现在成功获得竞争激烈的公寓上——强调了将精力集中在真正想要的事物上的力量。最终，精准选择能让你将时间投入到最重要的机会上。

这个Hacker News讨论围绕着非传统的求职策略，特别是“有针对性的投资”。原始帖子（来自seanmuirhead.com）可能详细介绍了主动求职的方法。评论强调了两种主要策略及其潜在缺点。首先，直接联系小型公司（少于30人）的CEO可能会适得其反，如果被认为越过了面试官的头顶，尤其是那些在组织中资历较深的人。CEO的干预也是一种风险。其次，联系现有员工寻求推荐引发了争论。虽然有些人认为多次跟进邮件令人厌烦且不专业，但另一些人认为，获得有价值推荐的小概率超过了疏远一些人的风险——尤其是在竞争激烈的就业市场中。共识倾向于除非存在真正的推荐机会，否则应利用正规渠道。

原文

January 18, 2026

The tech job market has been tough, leaving many applicants feeling hopeless. I've seen this first hand in my conversations with dozens of friends and across more than 100 job interviews. Here is my response to these people: you can drastically increase your odds of getting a job by making targeted bets rather than broadly applying and hoping something sticks.

How do I make a targeted bet?

A targeted bet begins with focus. Instead of applying broadly, identify 5-10 specific opportunities you genuinely want. In the context of job searching, these are roles where at least one of the following is true:

You are specifically interested in the job for reasons other than the money. It is unlikely that other applicants want the job as badly as you do.
You have a unique connection to the company. This usually comes in the form of either knowing, going to the same school as, or even growing up in the same hometown as a current employee.

Once the list has been narrowed, your goal is to stand out. Here are a few ways to do that:

Get in contact with current employees at the company. It is important that you send more than one email. I've gotten dozens of emails asking for meetings and referrals. The only time I actually respond to these is after the second email.
Do not ask employees for a referral! Most companies offer referral bonuses, so employees are incentivized to give you one if you can convince them that you will do well in the role.
If the company is <30 people, reach out to the CEO directly. A candidate who is particularly interested in the mission and bold enough to reach out to the CEO is a signal for a strong employee. Again, send more than one email.

Why does this work?

By narrowing your opportunities, you end up being able to spend more time on each one. Let's assume that a targeted bet increases your chances of getting a job from 1% to 10%. The average number of jobs you'd need to apply to before getting one thus jumps from 100 to just 10! Competitive systems reward effort per attempt, not volume.

Targeted bets beyond job searches

Targeted bets apply to more than just the job search. I recently scored the first apartment I applied to in a highly-competitive San Francisco neighborhood. I was specific in where and what I was looking for, so when the opportunity came up, I was able to devote lots of time and energy into getting it. I applied just 6 hours after the place came on the market. Seeing that there were lots of people at the tour, I sent a follow up email to the leasing agent explaining how I'd always wanted to live in the neighborhood. If I had been worried about the status of my other applications, I may not have had the time to write that follow up email and secure my apartment.

The Real Upside

The glory in making targeted bets is that you get to spend more time on the things that you really care about. I would advise against mass-applying to those entry-level jobs you don't really care about and instead start getting in contact with people at your dream job.