白宫力争在年底实现古巴政权更迭。
White House Aims For Cuba Regime Change By Year-End

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-aims-cuba-regime-change-end-year

在委内瑞拉的一次行动后,特朗普政府据报道正计划在今年年底前结束古巴的共产主义政府。该策略模仿委内瑞拉的成功经验,重点是寻找愿意帮助推翻米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔总统的古巴内部人士。特朗普公开警告古巴“达成协议”,并指出失去委内瑞拉的支持——一个关键的资金和安全来源——是一个削弱因素。 消息人士称,白宫认为古巴正处于崩溃的边缘,由于短缺、制裁和旅游业衰退而面临经济困境。虽然官员声称这不是传统的政权更迭,而是利用机会并提供“退出途径”,但这种做法涉及加大压力以及潜在的谈判。 委内瑞拉的行动造成了伤亡,如果古巴政府倒台,人们担心可能会出现人道主义危机和难民涌入,特别是由于古巴缺乏强大的有组织的反对派来执政。

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原文

Brimming with bravado after snatching Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a lightning raid on Caracas earlier this month, the Trump administration has now set a goal to end Communism in Cuba by the end of the year, according to sources who talked to the Wall Street Journal

Using the Venezuela operation as a blueprint, the White House is working to identify people inside the Cuban government who could be ripe for making a deal in which they use their position to help oust the current leadership, including President and First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel. Maduro's capture was reportedly enabled by an asset in his inner circle, who helped the CIA closely monitor Maduro's movements and daily habits ahead of the brazen snatch-and-grab mission.  

White House eyeing a one-two punch: Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel with then-Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (Cubainformación TV)

Following Maduro's ouster, Trump used his Truth Social account to warn that the Venezuela operation spelled doom for the communist government of Cuba, and that they should cut a "deal" soon:  

"Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided “Security Services” for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack...THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."

According to the Journal's sources, the White House views the Cuban regime as teetering on the edge of collapse, and increasingly vulnerable with the loss of its Venezuelan trading partners. Assessments by the U.S. intelligence community paint a grim picture inside the communist nation, with Cuba’s tourism and agriculture industries significantly affected by shortages of medicine and basic necessities, routine blackouts, trade sanctions, and a host of other problems. Tourism has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, and Cuba's economy has retracted alongside Venezuela’s over the past decade. 

Amid growing unease with Trump's interventionism -- including among a broad swath of conservatives -- Trump officials who spoke to the Journal sought to distinguish the administration's activism from the long line of regime-change efforts he railed against as a candidate: 

Some Trump officials said the president rejects regime-change strategies of the past. Instead, he looks to make deals where possible and to take advantage of opportunities as they come up, a senior Trump official said. As in Venezuela, this could look like escalating pressure while indicating the White House is open to negotiating an off-ramp, the official said. -- WSJ

A "White House official" reiterated Trump's warning about making a deal while there's still time, saying, “Cuba’s rulers are incompetent Marxists who have destroyed their country, and they have had a major setback with the Maduro regime that they are responsible for propping up." While the rhetoric suggests a preference for an ouster facilitated solely through the use of enterprising insiders, it seems one can't rule out another military assault. Cuban blood has already been shed in Trump's push to establish a new level of US dominance over the Americas, as 32 soldiers and intel agents were killed in the Jan. 3 US assault on Caracas.  

Some observers worry that a collapse of the Cuban government could bring about a major humanitarian crisis that could usher in yet another costly US nation-building program, and waves of refugees seeking asylum. In contrast to Venezuela, Cuba hasn't had any kind of organized political opposition or parties poised to graduate to managing the country.  

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