Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s first press conference of the year in late January touched upon a lot of topics, importantly including the Europeans’ plot to subvert Trump’s Ukrainian peace plan.
According to him, the UK “is speaking increasingly more often on behalf of the EU” and therefore plays a leading role in these efforts, “which boil down to one thing – an immediate ceasefire complemented with legal security guarantees for Ukraine. The question is what these security guarantees concern.”
As Lavrov sees it, the purpose is “the preservation of the current Nazi regime”, which “will never legally recognise Crimea, Novorossiya and Donbass as Russia…And a ceasefire along the current line of contact, following which ‘the West will help,’ is unacceptable to us because they will build bases there.”
In that scenario, “[France and the UK] will deploy a multinational force in Ukraine, build a network of military hubs (bases) there… and pump more weapons into Ukraine to create threats for the Russian Federation.”
In pursuit of these goals, they’re trying “to convince Trump (of their merits) and (then) let him force Putin to accept it, and that they will all go for it” once that happens.
“Trump’s idea, which we discussed and supported in Anchorage, has been categorically rejected by that elite European group.”
Lavrov didn’t mention it, but Trump hasn’t pushed back against the Europeans’ subversion of his Ukrainian peace plan, which was much more to Russia’s liking and at least presumably declared an intent to resolve root issues.
This observation strongly suggests that he’s once again falling under others’ influence, in this case warmongering Europeans and their neoconservative allies in the US, perhaps after being misled into regarding Russia’s restraint as a weakness that he can exploit to further his country’s zero-sum interests. These interests are to coerce the maximum number of concessions from Russia, ideally significant ones that weaken its overall strategic position, which Putin still rejects since he sees no reason to comply.
It’s in connection with this goal that Lavrov’s warning about the US’ attempt to establish strategic superiority over Russia is relevant. He also talked about this during the same press conference. The pertinence is that neutralizing Russia’s nuclear second-strike capabilities through the four interconnected means that he touched upon and which were analyzed here might make such concessions more likely. Russia is capable of retaining these capabilities, however, so that goal won’t be achieved in this way.
Therefore, the US’ only recourse for furthering these zero-sum interests (if Trump remains under the influence of warmongering Europeans and their neoconservative allies in the US) is to perpetuate the conflict in parallel with intensifying secondary sanctions pressure, both of which are presently occurring.
Trump could have punished the Europeans for subverting his Ukrainian peace plan agreed upon in Anchorage or at least told them to stop subverting it, but he’s thus far done neither to Russia’s chagrin.
It can’t be ruled out that he might one day do so, yet for the time being, Russia is rightly skeptical of his intentions but also doesn’t want to risk offending him and consequently making the worst-case scenario of him doubling down on the conflict a self-fulfilling prophecy by openly expressing such sentiment. That explains why Lavrov only criticized the Europeans during his press conference and not Trump.
Astute observers, however, can read between the lines and discern Russia’s displeasure with him too.
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