Tesla is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes today, and while the headline numbers will matter, most investors are far more focused on what Elon Musk says about the company’s future.

The earnings call that follows the report is expected to center on artificial intelligence, self-driving technology, robotaxis, and Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus. With the company’s traditional car business under pressure, this quarter is shaping up to be less about past performance and more about whether Tesla can convince Wall Street that its next chapter is still on track.

Wall Street consensus points to earnings of about 45 cents per share on roughly $25 billion in revenue, down from last year. Operating income is expected to be just over $1 billion, and gross margins are likely to hover near 17%, reflecting ongoing pricing pressure. Free cash flow is forecast to come in around $1.5 billion, while capital spending remains elevated as Tesla continues investing in factories, AI infrastructure, and new products. 

The automotive business remains Tesla’s biggest challenge. Vehicle deliveries fell sharply in the fourth quarter, and the loss of key tax credits, rising competition, and heavier use of discounts have all weighed on demand and margins. Analysts are closely watching automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, as a measure of Tesla’s true pricing power. Many expect it to come in near 14% to 15%, down from recent quarters. This reflects a reality that Tesla is no longer operating in a wide-open EV market and must now fight harder for every sale.

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, below Wall Street’s expectation of roughly 426,000 deliveries, according to CNBC and the company. Production totaled 434,358 vehicles. For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from 2024 and marking the second consecutive annual decline in deliveries.

That internal survey of 20 analysts projected 422,850 deliveries for the quarter, far below the broader public consensus at the time, which ranged from roughly 440,000 to 450,000 vehicles. Even Tesla’s lowered benchmark proved too high.

Fourth-quarter deliveries declined 16% from a year earlier, when Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles. Production fell 5.5% from the 459,445 vehicles the company built in the same period last year.

In contrast, Tesla’s energy division is widely expected to be a bright spot. The company continues to see strong demand for its Megapack battery systems, especially from data centers and AI companies building out massive computing infrastructure. Tesla deployed a record amount of energy storage during the quarter, and analysts expect revenue from the segment to approach $4 billion, up more than 20% from a year ago. Some analysts believe this business could become a steady, high-margin growth engine over time, helping offset weakness in car sales.

Robotics and artificial intelligence remain more speculative but are central to Tesla’s long-term story. Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot, is still largely in the prototype stage, but investors are eager to hear whether it is getting closer to real production.

Analysts want updates on manufacturing readiness, cost, and practical use cases inside Tesla’s factories. Elon Musk has said he expects robot sales to begin next year, but his history of aggressive timelines makes many on Wall Street cautious.

The biggest wild card, however, is robotaxis and full self-driving technology. Tesla has begun limited unsupervised rides in Austin, removing safety drivers in some vehicles, which Musk has called a major milestone. Analysts are watching closely to see how quickly Tesla can expand this service to other cities and whether regulators will allow broader use. 

Several analysts have laid out their views ahead of the report. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, one of Tesla’s biggest supporters, believes autonomous driving could give Tesla dominant market share over the next decade and has argued that robotaxis could become a massive profit driver.

In contrast, Oppenheimer has warned that Tesla’s AI and robotics progress has been slower than expected and that delays could hurt future earnings. Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities has summarized the debate by saying investors now see Tesla less as a car company and more as an “AI platform with physical products,” meaning expectations are extremely high.

Musk himself has added to the sense of anticipation in recent weeks.

He has said that Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin are operating without in-car safety monitors, that Full Self-Driving could soon receive approval in Europe and China, and that Optimus robots could be sold to consumers within the next couple of years. He has also spoken about his various companies “converging” over time, especially with AI, energy, and robotics overlapping more closely. These comments have energized supporters but also raised the bar for what Tesla needs to deliver.

Investors will soon know whether Tesla’s core business is stabilizing, whether energy can keep growing at its current pace, and whether robotaxis and robots are moving from vision to execution. If management provides clear timelines and concrete progress, the market may be willing to look past a weak quarter.

If the discussion stays vague or ambitious promises slip again, doubts about Tesla’s long-term story could deepen. Either way, the answers are only hours away.