埃尔多安敦促特朗普让他调解伊朗危机, Amid难民涌入的担忧。
Erdogan Urges Trump To Let Him Mediate Iran Crisis, Amid Fears Of Refugee Explosion

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/erdogan-urges-trump-let-him-mediate-iran-crisis-amid-fears-refugee-explosion

土耳其总统埃尔多安正在积极斡旋,以缓和美国和伊朗之间日益紧张的关系,提议特朗普总统和佩泽什基安总统进行直接电话会议。据报道,特朗普表现出兴趣,但伊朗尚未公开回应。此举正值伊朗外交部长阿拉奇在伊斯坦布尔进行外交会谈。 一个关键的症结在于美国要求伊朗限制其弹道导弹计划,而伊朗认为这是不可接受的,尤其是在以色列现有能力和过去袭击的情况下。土耳其反对军事行动,并敦促双方进行谈判——特别是关于伊朗核计划的谈判——同时也私下敦促伊朗进行内部改革并改善地区关系,以建立信任。 土耳其的动机超越了地区稳定;它与伊朗接壤,并依赖伊朗的经济联系。如果发生冲突,人们越来越担心潜在的移民危机,土耳其可能会利用这种情况向欧洲施压,重蹈覆辙。欧盟缺乏参与也是土耳其担忧的来源。

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原文

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing the idea of hosting a direct teleconference between US President Donald Trump and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian in a last-ditch bid to cool rising tensions, and avoid US military action.

Regional sources have newly revealed that in a phone call with Trump on Monday, Erdogan urged Washington to pursue diplomacy over escalation and offered Turkey's services as an intermediary, a Turkish official said.

via Reuters

Trump reportedly signaled interest in the proposal, though Tehran has yet to respond. According to the same official, the Iranian president has not issued any public reaction.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is actually currently in Istanbul amid a diplomatic scramble to avert war. One big problem is that Tehran is willing to talk about its nuclear program, but the reported Washington push for it to limit or abolish its ballistic missile arsenal is seen as nothing less than suicide

The Iranians see this request as simply a non-starter, given the same limitations would not be imposed on Israel, and the Israelis have already mounted a surprise attack on the Islamic Republic last June.

Turkey is against any US-led strikes or a war, but is still pressuring Tehran to make meaningful internal reforms:

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said: “It is wrong to attack Iran. It is wrong to start the war again. Iran is ready to negotiate in the nuclear file.”

He admitted Iran faced challenges at the bargaining table, saying: “It might seem humiliating for them. It will be very difficult to explain not only to themselves but to the leadership. So if we can make things better tolerated I think it will help.”

Fidan argued Iran also had to present a new face to the Middle East, saying he had been “very frank” with the Iranians that they “need to create trust in the region [and] they need to pay attention how they are perceived by the regional countries”.

Turkey has some other pressing interests, given the fact that it shares a far eastern border with Iran, and Iranian migrants and tourists have long played a role in its economy.

Ragıp Soylu of Middle East Eye has put it this way: "Lack of EU initiative to stop this escalation is worrisome. If Iran explodes, 90 million people wouldn’t stay only in the region and Turkey; they will definitely migrate to Europe."

He added, criticizing absent EU leadership: "But Von der Leyen is more interested in yoga camps in India."

If Turkey isn't happy about how things unfold regarding the US, Iran, and Israel - it could once again weaponize a potential new migrant crisis and hold it over Europe's head, as Erdogan did in 2015.

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