“末日钟”更靠近午夜
"Doomsday Clock" Ticks Closer To Midnight

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/doomsday-clock-ticks-closer-midnight

末日钟,一个象征全球灾难的指标,目前指向午夜前85秒——这是它有史以来最接近午夜的时间。这一令人担忧的变化,由原子科学家公报确定,反映了核武器、气候变化以及人工智能等新兴技术日益增长的危险。 主要担忧包括美国与俄罗斯之间最后一份重大核条约可能到期,从而导致新的军备竞赛,以及人工智能助长的虚假信息抬头,这可能破坏核威慑。近年来,由于新冠疫情、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及地缘政治不稳定加剧等事件,末日钟的指针越来越接近午夜。 尽管前景严峻,但原子科学家公报强调公众参与,超越投票,敦促公民了解情况并倡导解决这些关键风险的政策。虽然过去像古巴导弹危机这样的危机并未完全反映在末日钟的设定中,但当前威胁的叠加呈现出前所未有的危险程度。

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原文

The hands of the symbolic Doomsday Clock now stand at 85 seconds to midnight - closer to global catastrophe than ever before.

The Doomsday Clock, or the Nuclear War Clock, represents how close we are veering towards global disaster at the hands of humans.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the decision to move the clock forward from 89 to 85 seconds reflects escalating threats from nuclear weapons, accelerating climate change and the potential misuse of emerging technologies.

Infographic: “Doomsday Clock” Ticks Closer to Midnight | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

As Steve Fetter, a member of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, explains: “In every area, we have failed to take the steps that are necessary to reduce risks and there are new developments in every area that make the risks greater.”

At the announcement of the new setting, Bulletin representatives highlighted how the last remaining treaty governing nuclear weapons stockpiles between the United States and Russia is due to expire next week.

This means that for the first time in over half a century, there will be nothing preventing a “runaway” nuclear arms race. The scientists also voiced concern about the global rise of autocracies and how AI is “supercharging" mis- and disinformation.

It is believed that artificial intelligence could undermine nuclear deterrence in several ways. According to the Future of Life Institute, an international thinktank focused on existential risks from transformative technologies, this could include increased risk of error based on disinformation, as well as the fact that faster, AI-driven judgments may leave little time to verify information before irreversible actions are taken.

Despite these warnings, the Bulletin urges that the public has power beyond the ballot box.

Citizens, it argues, can also to take the opportunity to become more informed about these risks and to drive policy by showing political interest in their local districts.

Looking further back, the Doomsday Clock was first set below the two-minute mark (at "100 seconds" to midnight) in 2020.

That shift cited the Covid-19 pandemic, advancing climate change, the spread of fake news and a worsening geopolitical instability.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine later intensified these concerns, prompting researchers to advance the Doomsday Clock from 107 to 90 seconds (1.5 minutes) before midnight in early 2023.

As this chart shows, 1953 was also considered a year of heightened tensions, when the U.S. and the USSR had tested hydrogen bombs.

Notably, however, the threat of catastrophe from the so-called Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is not reflected on the clock.

This is likely because the issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published near the time came out in November/December 1962, after the immediate danger of the crisis had largely subsided.

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