Compared to the other candidates, Warsh is certainly more on the hawkish side of the spectrum.
And so, most asset classes wavered:
The record-breaking streaks in gold and silver have also ended – at least for now.
Gold and Silver are currently down about 12% and 25% from their peaks, respectively.
And that is despite concerns over a potential escalation in the Persian Gulf.
US equities are down notably (led by Small Caps - most rate sensitive)...
Momentum is getting mugged...
Treasury yields opened the day higher.. but retraced as stocks tumbled...
The dollar is rallying...
Bitcoin is down... of course...
And FX, Copper, and Oil (geopolitical risk) vols have exploded (with equity and bond vols to come?)...
Simply put, Trump has "put questions around Fed independence largely to bed."
It’s hard to know how much capital was chasing the trade purely on the belief that Fed credibility was under threat.
But, as Rabobank's Bas van Geffen notes, while the retracements are notable, we wouldn’t say that the debasement trade or diversification from the US have now stopped.
The FX (dollar) market may respond optimistically to the prospect of Warsh’ nomination, but broader US policy uncertainty is still not doing the dollar any favors.
The real risk to the big picture party is that rates come in and pull the punchbowl.
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