沃什大 washout
The Warsh Washout

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warsh-washout

市场对凯文·沃什可能被提名联邦储备委员会委员的反应强烈,他被认为是一位鹰派候选人。这一转变结束了近期黄金和白银的上涨行情(分别下跌12%和25%),尽管波斯湾地区的地缘政治紧张局势仍在持续。 美国股市,特别是小盘股,下跌,而美国国债收益率最初上涨后随着股市下跌而回落。美元走强,比特币价格下跌。外汇、铜和石油的波动性激增,预示着股市和债券的波动性也可能增加。 市场反应表明,一些投资者押注在不同提名人选下,美联储的独立性会减弱。虽然“货币贬值交易”尚未完全停止,但利率上升对市场持续上涨构成最大威胁。尽管美元最初得到提振,但更广泛的美国政策不确定性仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。

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原文

Compared to the other candidates, Warsh is certainly more on the hawkish side of the spectrum. 

And so, most asset classes wavered:

The record-breaking streaks in gold and silver have also ended – at least for now.

Gold and Silver are currently down about 12% and 25% from their peaks, respectively.

And that is despite concerns over a potential escalation in the Persian Gulf.

US equities are down notably (led by Small Caps - most rate sensitive)...

Momentum is getting mugged...

Treasury yields opened the day higher.. but retraced as stocks tumbled...

The dollar is rallying...

Bitcoin is down... of course...

And FX, Copper, and Oil (geopolitical risk) vols have exploded (with equity and bond vols to come?)...

Simply put, Trump has "put questions around Fed independence largely to bed."

It’s hard to know how much capital was chasing the trade purely on the belief that Fed credibility was under threat.

But, as Rabobank's Bas van Geffen notes, while the retracements are notable, we wouldn’t say that the debasement trade or diversification from the US have now stopped.

The FX (dollar) market may respond optimistically to the prospect of Warsh’ nomination, but broader US policy uncertainty is still not doing the dollar any favors.

The real risk to the big picture party is that rates come in and pull the punchbowl.

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