美国预期寿命达到历史最高点。
U.S. life expectancy hits all-time high

原始链接: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-life-expectancy-hits-all-time-high/

## 美国预期寿命达到历史新高,但仍落后于其他国家 截至2024年,美国人的预期寿命已达到历史最高水平,为79岁,这标志着在新冠疫情期间下降后出现积极转变。 这比2023年增加了半年以上,超过了自1900年以来的任何先例。 这一改善在不同人口群体中都有所体现,并伴随着年龄调整后的死亡率下降,包括心脏病和意外伤害等主要死因。 然而,尽管取得了这些进展,美国仍然落后于大多数其他发达国家,那里的预期寿命通常在80岁初期到中期。 专家们担心,这种复苏掩盖了潜在的问题,例如肥胖和心血管代谢疾病的上升趋势,这些问题早于疫情并威胁着未来的收益。 虽然新冠和药物过量死亡仍然显著(分别为约47,539例和87,000例),但自杀已经取代新冠成为主要的死亡原因。 专家强调需要继续投资于公共卫生和医疗保健的可及性,以确保持续改善并缩小与其他国家的差距。

## 美国预期寿命及讨论摘要 一篇近期文章报道美国预期寿命达到历史新高,引发了 Hacker News 的讨论。主要担忧是,这种增长是否是由于新冠疫情不成比例地影响弱势群体造成的暂时性统计异常,实际上是将死亡提前,而非真正的改善。 评论员指出,尽管美国医疗保健支出远高于其他发达国家,但预期寿命仍然落后于这些国家。与古巴、香港、日本、瑞士和澳大利亚等国的比较突出了不同的文化因素和医疗保健系统。澳大利亚的成功归功于严格的食品标准、积极的生活方式和全民医疗保健。 讨论还涉及了总体平均值的局限性,考虑到美国多样的人口结构,以及新型药物(如 GLP-1 类药物,包括 Ozempic 和 Wegovy)通过降低心血管风险对未来预期寿命的潜在影响。最后,一些人认为这些数据对社会保障和医疗保险具有影响。
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原文

U.S. life expectancy hits all-time high

Americans are living longer than ever but still well behind the life expectancy of other developed countries

Cropped image of a line chart shows U.S. life expectancy at birth from 2018 to 2024. There are separate lines for women, men and all sexes.

Amanda Montañez; Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (data)

The latest death data for the U.S. are in, and they paint an optimistic picture: The average American born in 2024 is now expected to live to age 79. That life expectancy is more than a half-year longer than it was in 2023 and great than in any prior year going back to 1900. It was still lower than that of most other developed countries, however.

The projection, released on Thursday by the National Center for Health Statistics, offers a glimmer of hope after COVID and overdose deaths pushed the U.S.’s average life expectancy down to 76.4 years in 2021, a drop of 2.4 years since 2019. Even so, there were 47,539 deaths involving COVID in 2024 and about 87,000 deaths from drug overdoses between October 2023 and September 2024, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention.

The new report also showed a decrease in age-adjusted death rates, from about 751 deaths per 100,000 Americans in 2023 to about 722 in 2024.


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“The rise in life expectancy is welcome news, and it is good to see that it was widespread across race, ethnicity and gender,” says Philip Cohen, a sociologist and demographer at the University of Maryland, College Park.

Line chart shows U.S. life expectancy at birth from 2018 to 2024. There are separate lines for women, men and all sexes.

Amanda Montañez; Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (data)

By 2024, Americans were still dying in the largest numbers from heart disease, cancer and unintentional injuries, in that order, though suicide replaced COVID as the 10th most common cause of mortality. Still, the age-adjusted death rate for all top 10 causes of death also decreased, with the biggest drop seen for unintentional injuries—from 62.3 deaths per 100,000 Americans in 2023 to 53.3 in 2024.

Though the news may be cause for celebration, there’s plenty of room for improvement. Andrew Stokes, who studies population health and mortality at Boston University, says he’s “concerned that the post-COVID recovery creates an appearance of momentum but obscures a larger story around stagnating and decelerating improvements that became apparent in the decade prior to the pandemic.” The causes of this stagnation, Stokes explains, include cardiometabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure and obesity, whose rates will likely grow.

In most other developed countries, the life expectancy in 2024 was in the low to mid-80s, according to the United Nations. “There are still critical problems in the U.S. public health profile. It should not be big news when the life expectancy rises, which happens every year in every other developed country,” Cohen says, adding that U.S. infant mortality showed no change in 2024.

“And overall…, the U.S. has a shockingly low life expectancy,” he says. “We may be back above where we were before the pandemic, but it is too little, too late, as we were already trending much lower than countries with comparable economic profiles.”

Cohen and Stokes are both worried that U.S. health care is moving in the wrong direction, “with more people losing health care coverage and less support for basic public health among the population,” Cohen says.

Editor’s Note (1/30/26): This article was updated after posting to include comments from Andrew Stokes.

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