苹果公司2025年第四季度服务业务的利润率为76.5%。
Margin Call

原始链接: https://asymco.com/2026/02/01/margin-call-3/

尽管分析师持悲观预测,苹果公司上季度报告了高达48.2%的毛利率,超出预期并创下历史新高。这一成功归功于产品和服务的“有利组合”以及运营杠杆——特别是强劲的iPhone销售周期。 财报电话会议上,人们对内存成本和供应链限制(特别是先进硅节点)表示担忧,但苹果公司认为这些因素对上季度影响微乎其微,并且已经纳入了当前季度48-49%毛利率的预期。 分析师反复质疑苹果公司如何在更广泛的市场压力下实现这些利润率,但管理层强调了强劲的需求、内部芯片开发(苹果芯片是“改变游戏规则者”)以及他们在供应链中的巨大影响力。他们强调了高利润率服务日益增长的贡献,以及对核心技术持续投资,从而推动差异化和成本节约。 最终,苹果公司的表现打破了负面情绪,证明了其应对挑战和持续扩大利润的能力——尽管此前曾预测关税、法规和其他因素会带来不利影响,但这种模式依然存在。

苹果公司2025年第四季度服务业务的利润率达到76.5%,引发了Hacker News上关于该公司在该领域高盈利能力的讨论。这一利润率与近期反垄断案件中披露的数据相符:iCloud的毛利率为78%(根据当前诉讼),App Store费用为75%(Epic案件),以及来自Google广告收入分成近100%的利润。 评论员们争论这些高利润率是否可持续,一些人认为它们优先考虑利润而非用户体验,并损害了苹果的品牌。另一些人指出,有限的竞争——特别是谷歌在Android方面遇到的困难——使得这些利润成为可能。一种普遍的观点是,大多数iPhone用户不了解或不关心App Store的做法。 也有一些用户预测,未来硬件销售将成为服务收入产生的次要部分。
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原文

While the commentariat assumes the worst, Apple delivers the best.

Last quarter Apple delivered a gross margin of 48.2%. This was above the high end of their guidance range and up 100 basis points sequentially. Management commented that this was “driven by favorable mix and leverage.”

Further, products gross margin was 40.7%, up 450 basis points sequentially, driven by favorable mix and leverage. Services gross margin was 76.5%, up 120 basis points sequentially, driven by mix.

This performance is even more astonishing considering the history shown below. Apple is quite simply, delivering at the highest gross and net margins in its history.

Line graph depicting Apple's profit margins over time, including Gross Margin, Operating Margin, Net Margin, Product Margin, and Services Margin percentages, with data spanning from 2010 to 2023.

Note that the graph actually projects forward one quarter because we have the following guidance: “We expect gross margin to be between 48-49%.” The graph reflects the high end of this guidance range.

So what’s going on? Especially as a drumbeat of constant doom is being broadcast by pundits. The conference call itself seemed to be dedicated to margins. It became what I call the Margin Call.

Amit Daryanani, the first questioning analyst, specifically kicked off with the following:

“there is a lot of focus on the impact of memory to host the companies, and I would love to kind of get your perspective when you are first guiding gross margins up into March. Talk about, a, your comfort in securing the bit that you need for shipment and b, how do we think about memory inflation flowing through Apple’s model over time?”

Tim Cook answered:

We are currently constrained, and at this point, it is difficult to predict when supply and demand will balance. The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on. And at this time, we are seeing less flexibility in the supply chain than normal, partly because of our increased demand that I just spoke about. From a memory point of view, to answer your question, memory had a minimal impact on Q1. So the December gross margin. We do expect it to be a bit more of an impact on the Q2 gross margin, and that was comprehended in the outlook of 48 to 49% that Kevin gave earlier.

what Apple is saying is that they are constrained by production of silicon but not of memory. They do see some impact in the future but that is included in a guidance of margin expansion.

Analysts still could not believe this, the following exchange soon followed:

Ben Reitzes: So the next question is on gross margin. I am pretty shocked I gotta hand it to you, Tim. I am, you know, that you are able to do 48 to 49. What is really going on there? How are you doing that with this memory, the NAND prices? Is it due to mix that there is a good less hardware and more services? Services and services margins are going up. How are you doing it to keep it at 48 to 49?

Kevan Parekh: Yeah, Ben. This is Kevin. [] Let me start maybe by just reflecting on the Q1 gross margin. I think we talked about the fact that we landed at 48.2%, so just above the high end of the range we provided, [], on the last call. [] if you look at that performance, [], we were up 100 basis points sequentially. We talked about the fact that we had favorable mix. [], as you know, when we have a good product cycle, strong price cycle we are seeing for iPhone, that does lend itself to a bit more favorable opportunity on the [] leverage side.

So we are having a strong iPhone cycle as Tim outlined. And so that also translates itself. So we talked about products sequentially went up by 450 basis points. So I think, in general, I think we are just seeing, [], favorable mix dynamics as well. [], service continues to contribute as well. That business is growing, [], double digits, so that also is a contributor. And I think that, [], if you looked at our guidance, [], we are providing a similar range to where we reported in December. There are going to be a few puts and takes. [], we do expect to see favorable mix in the services.

As you know, when we move from Q1 to Q2, that tends to be the case, and that is partly offset by a seasonal loss leverage. So there will be puts and takes, but again, we feel pretty good about the guide of 48 to 49%, which is similar to the range we reported in December.

Still not enough. Two more questions followed on margin. I will quote one here.

Aaron Rakers: Yep. And then as a quick follow-up, you know, kind of tied to memory, maybe not so much, but part of this current generation iPhone cycle is you clearly deepened some of your own internal silicon capabilities on the device. I am curious if that if we should think about that as a lever and maybe a supportive factor to gross margin that might be underappreciated and any thoughts on where we go from here as far as continual opportunities of internalizing your own silicon? Thank you.

Timothy D. Cook: Yeah. I will let Kevin talk about the gross margin. But in terms of the product, which is at the heart of what we think about in the user, Apple silicon has just been an incredible game changer for us. Starting with iPhone and then on iPad and, of course, the Mac as of a few years ago. And so we believe it is a game changer and a major advantage.

Kevan Parekh: Yeah. And as far as impact on gross margin, yeah, we have been, as you know, investing in core technologies like our own silicon and our own modem. And certainly, while those do provide opportunities for cost savings and can be plugged in margins, they also importantly provide, [], the differentiation that is really important for our products as well and us more control of our roadmap. So I think there is a lot of strategic value to it, but also we are seeing, [], investments in our core technologies impacting, [], gross margin in a positive way.

After all this, the financial commentariat continues to assume that Apple will be hit with margin pressure from memory and that has presumably been affecting the share price since the call.

Well, we’ve seen all this before. Before the great memory crisis Apple was going to be constrained by tariffs, by China, by developer dissatisfaction, by AI, by regulators, etc.

The feeling one gets is that Apple is always navigating through a minefield of pitfalls and gotchas. The opposite is true. It’s highly likely that Apple has sufficient leverage which increases its access to supply and that everyone is keen to work with the company. Leverage comes from scale, from lead time, from vertical integration and from engineering. Management is saying as much. Indeed, the evidence of leverage across the supply chain and over the entire ecosystem and economy is evident in its margin expansion story told in the graph above.

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