In recent weeks, calls to defund or even abolish ICE have ramped up from the Democratic Party, particularly after the shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. However, despite their rhetoric, American voters are far more aligned with Trump’s immigration crackdown. In fact, it looks like their views on immigration enforcement are so far out of touch with mainstream America that it could cost them the midterm elections.

The latest Cygnal survey has made some rather telling discoveries: enforcement is popular, defunding ICE is toxic, and Democrats are walking straight into an electoral buzz saw by pretending otherwise.

Cygnal, widely regarded as one of the most accurate private pollsters in the country, polled likely 2026 midterm voters and found that voters still see the border as a question of law, not vibes. A full 73 percent of voters say that entering the United States illegally is, in fact, breaking the law, which means most Americans still accept the basic premise behind the word “illegal.” 

Voters also back deportation of people in the country illegally by a margin of 61 percent to 34 percent, nearly two to one. Support for actual enforcement is just as clear. Fifty-four percent want ICE to enforce federal immigration laws and remove illegal immigrants, and 58 percent oppose efforts to defund the agency. 

The biggest problem for Democrats hoping to win back control of the House and Senate in November is that the opposition to defunding ICE includes majorities of independents and undecided voters.

Nearly two-thirds of likely midterm voters, 64 percent, say illegal immigration is a national problem. Among swing voters, it’s 71 percent. Republicans are almost unanimous at 97 percent, and 60 percent of independents agree, while Democrats are the only group in which a large share insists it is not a problem at all.

The data shows that Democrats have a significant problem with one of their most prominent policy positions ahead of the midterm elections, and it will likely cost them.

According to Cygnal’s polling, Democrats hold a modest four-point edge on a generic congressional ballot. The problem for them is that this advantage disappears once voters are told Democrats want to defund ICE or weaken enforcement. In that scenario, the race becomes tied. If Democrats push a government shutdown to defund ICE, Republicans gain a two-point lead, a six-point swing driven by a single issue. Among swing voters, the backlash is even sharper, producing a 16-point shift toward Republicans.

 That kind of shift points to a deeper problem than messaging. It exposes a structural blind spot in the Democrat coalition: The activist wing’s demands to confront or abolish ICE alienate the very voters needed to win close races, particularly in swing districts. 

Cygnal’s data show Republicans gain whenever they draw a clear contrast between enforcing immigration law and Democrat efforts to weaken or defund enforcement. Voters reward candidates who back deportation and strong ICE enforcement and punish those who side with activists against it.

 “Voters see illegal immigration as a simple question of law and order,” Brent Buchanan, the founder and CEO of Cygnal, said in a statement. “Americans want the law enforced, they want illegal immigrants removed, and they punish politicians who try to block ICE from doing its job.” The data show little ambiguity in how voters process the issue. 

The numbers paint a clear picture heading into the midterm elections. Most voters support enforcing immigration law and oppose efforts to defund or hamstring ICE. Despite all the negative publicity, this issue is a winning issue for the GOP.