启动农村最低收入保障计划
Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative

原始链接: https://blog.codinghorror.com/launching-the-rural-guaranteed-minimum-income-initiative/

作者及其伴侣秉持着富裕者有责任帮助他人的信念,正在捐赠7100万美元用于“分享美国梦”项目。该项目最初以2100万美元的即时捐款支持八家非营利组织,解决紧迫需求。但他们认识到需要长期解决方案,因此承诺额外捐赠5000万美元——即他们剩余财富的一半——以解决系统性问题。 他们的重点是保证最低收入(GMI),这是普遍基本收入的一种针对性版本,为经历代际贫困的家庭提供直接现金援助。研究表明,这种方法有效地满足了食物、住房和医疗保健等基本需求,甚至可以减少药物滥用。 该项目将首先在三个农村县(西弗吉尼亚州、北卡罗来纳州、密西西比州)启动试点计划,优先选择这些地区是因为这些地区需求更大,并且具有产生有影响力的研究潜力。所有数据将公开共享,以促进可复制的研究并为全球数据库做出贡献。最终目标是在全国范围内推广GMI,他们认为直接现金转移是一种强大且基于证据的方式,可以赋能个人并建设一个更加公平的未来。

一项新倡议提出为美国农村居民提供最低收入保障,在Hacker News上引发了争论。一些人支持这一想法,认为在日益自动化的就业市场中,这是一种必要的安全网,而另一些人则质疑将重点放在单一人口群体上。 有人担心,专门为农村居民提供资金可能存在统计歧视,建议优先加强现有的SNAP和医疗补助等项目。 许多评论员强调了农村地区面临的经济挑战——人口减少、人口老龄化和产业流失——认为,如果没有更广泛的系统性变革(例如促进远程工作),这项实验的影响可能有限。 讨论还集中在资金是否可以更有效地用于其他地方,尤其是在购买力更高的发展中国家。 一些愤世嫉俗的回应认为,这项倡议可能出于政治动机,旨在安抚经常阻碍进步政策的选民群体。
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原文

It's been a year since I invited Americans to join us in a pledge to Share the American Dream:

1. Support organizations you feel are effectively helping those most in need across America right now.

2. Within the next five years, also contribute public dedications of time or funds towards longer term efforts to keep the American Dream fair and attainable for all our children.

Stay gold, America. 💛

Personally, I’ve become a big believer in one particular quote, especially considering the specific context in which it was delivered:

“From those to whom much is given, much is expected.” — Mary Gates

Those 10 words had a profound effect on the world. Indeed, we were given much, so we, as a family, will choose to give much. On a recent podcast, my partner Betsy said it better than I could have:

“Well, we have everything we need!” That’s how I’ve always phrased it to [our children]. That, I think, extends [to our philanthropy]. We have everything we need; how do we make sure everybody has what they need? Because that’s the basic thing — Do you have a comfortable place to live? Do you have enough to eat? Do you have healthcare? If you have the basics, you’re in a good place in life, and everybody should have that opportunity.

It’s a question I’ve asked myself a lot since 2021. When, exactly, is enough?

We do have everything we need. Why can’t everyone else have the basic things they need, too?

Beyond the $1M to eight nonprofit charities we listed in January 2025, we saw immediate needs becoming so urgent that we quickly added an additional $13M in donations within a few months, for a total of $21M.

Immediate Share The American Dream Donations (~$21M)

But you can’t take a completely short term view and fight each individual fire reactively, as it comes. You'll never stop firefighting. We also have to do fire abatement and deal with the root causes, improving conditions in this country such that there aren’t so many fires. Thus for the second half, much longer term part, in addition to the $21M already donated, we pledged $50M — half of our remaining wealth — to address the underlying, systemic issues.

I proposed some speculative ideas in “Stay Gold,” and this one ended up being the closest:

We could found a new organization loosely based on the original RAND Corporation, but modernized like Lever for Change. We can empower the best and brightest to determine a realistic, achievable path toward preserving the American Dream for everyone, working within the current system or outside it.

By March, 2025 we had consensus — The Road Not Taken is Guaranteed Minimum Income.

The Road Not Taken is Guaranteed Minimum Income

The dream is incomplete until we share it with our fellow Americans.

Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is an improved version of the older concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) — rather than indiscriminately giving money to “everyone,” GMI directs the money towards those who most need it, particularly families experiencing generational poverty.

📢 Please note that after this post, Coding Horror will revert to normal nerdy blog posts, and all future GMI content will be at a dedicated site linked below.

Why did we decide on GMI?

  • Almost every existing UBI/GMI study result data we could find indicates cash generally works. For example, OpenResearch data showed the greatest increase in spending among study participants was in meeting basic needs, with the greatest percent increase in support to others (26%), along with huge decreases in reported alcohol use (20% less) and days using non-prescribed painkillers (53% fewer). Why wouldn’t we continue to build something that has generally been shown to work, study after study, time and time again?
  • This is survival money, cash for folks so they can put food on the table, get a roof over their heads, have a functioning vehicle to go to work, and decide how to meet their most basic, critical needs. It pains me to say this, but we live in a world where many people simply do not often experience open generosity, or regular income. When you show someone what it feels like to just not be hungry for a little while, their view of the world changes. They feel trusted. They see possibility.
Stacy D. and baby

RISE Recipient Stacy D. | WV

I moved here with my family. And I have no family up here other than who I brought with me. So, how most people can be like, “Hey, I’m having a hard time. Got $20 or a pack of diapers.” I have nobody up here to do that. So, if me and my husband don't figure it out, it don't get figured out.

So, I’ve got five kids that live with me... I was working full-time until I got pregnant. I prayed for this baby for 10 years. So, as soon as I got pregnant, I stopped working. I was high risk.

The day I got cleared to go back to work, my vehicle broke down. It was the only vehicle that we had that carried all the kids. So, I’ve been four months without my car. So this is also going to get my vehicle back on the road.

You don’t know how hard it is to ask people, hey, can I get a ride to the grocery store? Or, hey, my baby has two month shots. I had to borrow a vehicle. This is gonna... it’s going to do a lot!

  • Unlike many other social programs, GMI studies require initiative. These are opt-in studies that you have to sign up for, demonstrate that you meet the income criteria and are a resident of the county — and because spots are limited, be randomly selected from eligible applicants. We emphasize that this is not passive, it is active teamwork to improve the GMI program with your family, your community, and everyone else we can reach together over the next few decades.

Building On What Works

  • The massive OpenResearch UBI study, the largest and most detailed guaranteed income study ever conducted in the USA, was designed to be a template for future, more refined studies, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. We will also use what we learn in this group of three counties — as in software, the rule of three — to iterate, adapt, and improve our GMI study playbook with every new group of three counties, generating a playbook anyone can use.
  • We strive to do repeatable, replicable science in every study, and all our data will be open and freely shared with the world. We’re contributing to — and partially funding — a global, open data repository for basic income pilots all around the world, UBIdata. It’s the same reason we made Stack Overflow content part of the creative commons, and Discourse fully open source.
  • GMI is seed funding for families, investing in our fellow Americans, those who need it the most. A large body of research shows that dollars targeted to lower-income families are more likely to be spent quickly and reduce hardship, and can improve outcomes for children. “Trickle up” economics works, whereas "trickle down" tax cuts for the rich increase income inequality and provide no significant effect on growth or jobs.
  • This is the newer trust based model of philanthropy, much closer to venture capital funding. We primarily empower, fund, and build up existing organizations like GiveDirectly and OpenResearch, forming a collaborative team to leverage all their existing work and grow their organizations in whatever way they see fit, because they have the most experience in the GMI space.

The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative

I like to go that way, really fast, so we are already well underway with the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative.

We focus on rural counties, where dollars go a lot further, poverty is more prevalent, and populations are smaller for tighter studies. Rural counties are also greatly overlooked in this country, in my opinion, yet they have so much incredible untapped talent. I know because that’s exactly where my parents and I are from.

Map of the United States via rgmii.org showing all 3,143 counties by rural (gold) / metro (grey) and population

We’ve funded three county level programs (Mercer, WV; Beaufort, NC; Warren, MS) that are already underway, where we will help lift thousands of people out of poverty for a period of 16 months, while sharing data and results with the world. That’s a good start.

Zoomed in map of USA with Mercer County, WV and Beaufort County, NC and Warren County, MS highlighted

But I think we can do considerably more. With your help, we hope to reach all 50 states over time.

In “Stay Gold,” I noted that all of American history contains the path of love, and the path of hate. But the path of love is the only survivable path. It’s so much harder, and it’s going to be a lifetime of work. But what else could I possibly buy with our money that would be worth anything close to this, for all of us?

What You Can Do

Everyone is invited to help. Share results, learn the history of GMI (it’s actually fascinating, I swear), talk to your representatives and generally spread the word. A surprising number of people have never even heard the terms UBI or GMI, and sometimes have misconceptions about what they are and how they work.

logo for the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative, a gold star with red/white/blue streamers above staygold.us and a QR code above rgmii.org

If you, or someone you know, is “those to whom much is given,” and in a position to sponsor county-scale work, please join us in bringing a GMI study to a new rural county and reach all 50 states. Let’s continue to do science and help lift thousands of people out of poverty while generating open data for the world.

Map of the United States showing all 3,143 counties heatmapped by poverty level from yellow (least) to dark orange (most)

This is my third and final startup. Rather than an “Atwood Foundation,” all we want to do is advance the concept of direct cash transfer. Simply giving money to those most in need is perhaps the most radical act of love we can take on... and all the data I can find shows us that it works — helping people afford basic needs, keep stable housing, and handle unexpected expenses.

Dreams, like happiness, are only real when shared. So let’s do that together.

staygold.us 💛

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