Birth rates in the U.S. have been declining for decades, but that decline has hit some states faster than others.

The projections in this visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, are from SmartAsset, who analyzed results from U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 1-Year American Community Survey.

The number shown for each state represents births per 1,000 people, and is based on most recent fertility rate data and state demographics.

Utah’s Demographic Advantage

Utah ranks first in the nation, with an estimated 9.7 babies born per 1,000 people each year.

The state’s relatively young population plays a major role, as younger adults are more likely to be in childbearing years. Cultural and religious influences also contribute, with larger family sizes remaining more common than in many other states.

Large States, Strong Numbers

Texas and California rank near the top both in absolute and relative terms. California is projected to see more than 340,000 births per year, while Texas exceeds 278,000. On a per-capita basis, both states are driven by younger populations and higher shares of immigrants.

Where Birth Rates Lag

States in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest tend to rank lower. Maine, Vermont, and West Virginia sit near the bottom, with fewer than eight babies born per 1,000 people annually. Older populations, higher living costs, and delayed family formation all play a role.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Countries With the Biggest Gains in Life Expectancy on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.