所有星舰都去哪儿了?
Where did all the starships go?

原始链接: https://www.datawrapper.de/blog/science-fiction-decline

## 科幻与奇幻:图书标题中的变化趋势 最近,Datawrapper对互联网推测小说数据库(ISFDB)中超过21万本科幻和奇幻小说的标题进行分析,揭示了明显的类型转变。虽然像“太空”、“火星”和“星球”这样的经典科幻关键词在1950-60年代达到顶峰——反映了太空探索时代——但此后一直在稳步下降。 相反,像“龙”、“魔法”和“女巫”这样的奇幻关键词自2000年以来急剧上升,这与《哈利·波特》和《指环王》等系列的成功相吻合。甚至吸血鬼和狼人的主题也促成了这种趋势。 有趣的是,“黑暗”、“战争”和“死亡”等词语在几十年中始终受欢迎,证明了它们在两种类型中的吸引力。作者指出,虽然科幻小说在书店货架上可能不太突出,但它可能正在演变,其主题正在被主流小说吸收。该分析强调了对“太空歌剧黄金时代”的怀旧渴望,现在需要更专注的搜索才能找到。

一篇Datawrapper文章引发了Hacker News的讨论,探讨为什么科幻小说标题似乎不再偏向于字面意义上的“星舰”意象。一个关键观点是,这不一定意味着科幻*内容*的下降,而可能只是标题命名惯例变得更加抽象。 然而,对话深入探讨,提出一个历史原因来解释这种转变。用户指出,1960年代的太空探测器(水手号和金星号)带来的幻灭感,揭示了火星和金星的严酷现实——粉碎了在太阳系内发现生命的早期希望。最初的这种热情,源于真诚的科学乐观主义,随着数据证明太阳系在很大程度上不适宜居住而减弱。 一位评论员指出,早期的科幻小说,例如阿瑟·克拉克的作品,反映了最初的乐观情绪,而后期缺乏令人兴奋的发现,则促使了关注点的转变,并可能改变了小说中对太空的描绘方式。
相关文章

原文
<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Science_fiction_art#/media/File:GAX-447.jpg">Mike Winkelmann</a>, CC BY-SA 4.0, via <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Science_fiction_art#/media/File:GAX-447.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>
Mike Winkelmann, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Hi, I’m Jonathan, responsible for all things technical when it comes to Datawrapper’s website and blog. In this week’s Weekly Chart, I’m having a look at the titles of science fiction and fantasy novels across decades.

As a reader of science fiction, I've noticed that the sci-fi aisles in bookstores are getting smaller and smaller. So small, in fact, that I now regularly have to make the trip to a shop here in Berlin that still sells the "good stuff." Fantasy seems to be taking over, at least commercially. And while this trend is no secret, I thought it would be interesting to visualize it.

On the search for a suitable dataset, I came across the Internet Speculative Fiction Database (ISFDB), a volunteer effort to maintain an up-to-date source of bibliographical information on works of fiction that fall into the genres of science fiction, fantasy, or horror.

Let’s see how often typical sci-fi words have been mentioned in the ~210,000 titles in that database over the decades:

The data tells a clear story: classic sci-fi keywords peaked in the 1950s–60s and have steadily declined since. "Space" saw the sharpest drop, from over 2.5% of titles in the 1950s to under 0.5% today. "Mars," "Planet/s," and "Moon/s" follow the same trajectory. The golden age of space exploration in fiction seems to have ended alongside the Apollo program. (One notable exception is the slight uptick in “Moon” titles between the 1990s and the 2010s that may be explained by the next category.)

Meanwhile, fantasy keywords show an opposite trend. "Dragon/s" barely registered before 1980 but now appears in nearly 2% of titles. "Magic(al)" and "Witch/es" follow similar trends, accelerating sharply after 2000 — the timing aligns with the commercial success of Harry Potter and the Lord of the Rings movies. Twilight and Buffy, the Vampire Slayer, seem to have revived the vampire genre. Vampires and werewolves also likely contributed to the continued presence of "Moon" in book titles.

Not everything follows the genre shift. Words like "Dark(ness)," "War/s," and "Death" retain remarkably stable presence in book titles across seven decades. These are genre-agnostic terms, equally at home in space opera or epic fantasy — with a slight uptick around the 90s supposedly due to the decade's fascination with the supernatural. And while time travel hasn't yet materialized, time itself continues to be a topic.

Shelves are a-changing

What does this mean for science fiction? I am not so sure. The classic space opera may have ceded shelf space to urban fantasy and dragon-laden epics, but sci-fi themes have become more diverse and partially absorbed into the mainstream. It might even be evolving into something new.

Still, I miss those aisles. There's something beautiful about a paperback with a title and cover promising distant stars, strange new worlds, and most importantly, lots of starships. The data confirms what my local bookstore already told me: if you're looking for the old-school stuff, you'll have to look a little harder (or online, starting with a search on the ISFDB).

What I learned along the way

I originally planned to use existing tags from the ISFDB to visualize the sci-fi/fantasy split, determined to show that sci-fi was becoming less popular. Turns out that only a small fraction of novels in the DB are actually tagged by genre. So that wasn't a satisfying option.

I then tried to categorize all titles from the ISFDB by genre using a combination of web-scraped plot summaries and LLM-assisted tagging. Another dead-end, that taught me not to trust AI with the subtleties of sci-fi and fantasy tropes. Even when I reduced the dataset to award-winning novels only and provided more context, the responses were fuzzy at best and unusable at scale.

Ultimately, I took the simpler approach of simply checking how often certain words appeared in the titles of all ~210,000 English-language novels in the database. Sometimes, simple works.


That's it from me this week! Next Thursday, you can look forward to a fresh Weekly from Luc.

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