American and Turkish policies in Syria are increasingly clashing in the open in the wake of Assad's ouster on December 8. As we detailed last week, the Pentagon is building a new base in the heart of Kurdish territory in northern Syria near the Turkish border (which the US has since denied, despite videos showing the military build-up).
This is a huge provocation to the Erdogan government, given the Turkish army and its proxies are at war with the US-backed Syrian Kurds. In fresh Monday statements, Turkey has put both the Kurds and by extension Washington on notice, saying it is only a "matter of time" before Kurdish militants are driven out of Syria.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that Turkey will not accept any future Syria with the YPG in it. The YPG makes up the core of the US-funded and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but Turkey sees it as but an extension of the outlawed PKK.
"We are in a position not only to see but also to break any kind of plot in the region," Fidan told a press conference alongside his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi in Ankara.
"Conditions in Syria have changed. We believe it's only a matter of time before the PKK/YPG is eliminated," he said, calling on the group to lay down its arms "as soon as possible."
"The PKK’s empire of violence built over Kurdish people is on the verge of collapsing," he added, according to Turkish media. That's when he indirectly addressed the United States, which has propped up the YPG for at least a half-decade at this point:
"If you (the West) have different aims in the region, if you want to serve another policy by using Daesh as an excuse to embolden the PKK, then there is no way for that either," he said.
The Pentagon has long justified its troop presence in the northeast Syria as part of the 'counter-ISIS' mission, even though the Islamic State had been defeated long ago. At times US officials also talk about the 'counter-Iran' mission, which is less pressing now in the wake of Assad's defeat.
Turkish media is meanwhile reporting that Jolani's HTS government in Damascus, which is without doubt serving Turkey's interests, has ordered the Syrian Kurds to immediately lay down their arms:
The interim Syrian government held talks with representatives of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), demanding that they disarm, Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources.
...Two meetings have taken place between the new Syrian authorities and representatives of the PKK, who reportedly sought recognition as a division or corps within the official Syrian army in exchange for disarmament. The new Syrian authorities did not accept any conditions, the Turkish newspaper said.
But the Kurds do have significant leverage, given they are directly supported by US special forces and aerial assets, and currently control almost all oil and gas fields in Syria.
The Kurds will likely settle for nothing less than clear autonomy and self-governance within a federated system if they are to be part of the Syrian state. As for Washington, it's anything but clear what the end-game is for the US occupation. Another big looming questions is whether it will keep up the sanctions, which have brutalized the common populace in the region.
Trump during his first term in office expressed a desire to bring the troops home, and it remains uncertain whether he'll try to see this through during this next term. He doesn't take kindly to threats from Turkey, however.