A grand deal involving Turkey, Syria, and the Kurds is in the works, and on Thursday a historic announcement was made by the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Abdullah Ocalan, speaking from a Turkish prison, has called on the group that he founded to lay down its arms and disband. This is the result of years of running Turkish-PKK battles as well as fragile negotiations. The PKK has long been in an official state of war with the Turkish government, which considers it a terrorist organization.
"Convene your congress and make a decision," Ocalan said in the statement, read aloud both in Kurdish and in Turkish. "All groups must lay down their arms and the P.K.K. must dissolve itself."
Turkey's war against the PKK, as well as the conflict's extension into Syria and Iraq (the YPG/YPJ), has taken tens of thousands of lives. The crackdown on the PKK was its most intense in the 1990s. More recently and connected with the Syria crisis, Turkish warplanes have bombed Syrian Kurdish enclaves connected with the Rojava project.
"The rare message from Mr. Ocalan raised the possibility that a conflict that has killed more than 40,000 people over four decades could finally end," the NY Times has stated. "It could also echo across borders, given Mr. Ocalan’s profound influence over members of the group in Turkey and Iraq as well as affiliated Kurdish militias in Syria and Iran."
Ocalan has actually been in prison for a quarter-century at this point, but the influence of his leadership has remained strong, as Kurdish fighters almost worship him. His political doctrine is widely read and quoted.
But even with this huge step of the PKK's dissolution, the question of implementing details as well as the next steps are highly uncertain. There's also the question of whether the more hardline Kurdish factions will actually heed the call to lay down arms:
His message was greeted with joy in the Istanbul conference room where Öcalan’s allies gathered to broadcast his call, after displaying a photo of supporters visiting the white-haired septuagenarian. A group of older Kurdish peace activists ululated as the call to lay down arms was read out.
“This is the breaking point of history and it is a positive one,” said Sırrı Süreyya Önder of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) party. “We are here with a compass to find a possible route out of these dark chaotic days.”
Önder hinted at some of the potential problems to come, adding that while Öcalan called for the PKK’s dissolution and to lay down arms, this “requires the recognition of democratic politics”, and legal support for a sustained peace.
The Kurdish-led SDF in Syria is unlikely to immediately heed the call. They are supported by the US occupation in northeast Syria and American special forces advisors.
However this does mean the clock is ticking for the US occupation - which Turkey has long wanted to squeeze out. At the same time, the new HTS rulers in Damascus have been making overtures - offering Syria's Kurds integration into the state and military, if they abandon hopes for a Kurdish autonomous state.
Thus this 'grand bargain' will ultimately be another win for Turkey in the region, and the Pentagon will eventually be forced to pull back. But this is also reportedly what Trump has wanted - a US withdrawal done in a way that doesn't leave a security vacuum.