Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

This suggests that Russia expects a political settlement or at least an armistice within the next six months so it’s now prioritizing the further legitimization of its control over the new regions by finally completing their legal integration into the country at the local administrative level by 10 September.

Putin signed a decree on Thursday obligating all Ukrainians in Russia without valid residence documents to legalize their stay by 10 September. They can do this by either applying for Russian citizenship via the simplified procedure for Ukrainian nationals that entered into force in summer 2022 or for residency by either proving legal employment or enrollment in a Russian education program. Many assumed that this had already happened some time ago, especially in the new regions, yet it’s only just now occurring.

Some Ukrainian nationals’ legally ambiguous status doesn’t mean that the state isn’t aware of who they are and what they’re doing, just that it wasn’t hitherto a priority to clarify this with regard to Russian law, likely due to stereotypically slow bureaucracy and the state’s focus on waging the special operation. With the Ukrainian Conflict drawing to a close due to the nascent Russian-US “New Détente”, it’s now time to wrap up loose ends such as these for further legitimizing Russia’s control over its new regions.

Ukrainian and other foreign nationals must therefore legalize their presence there just as they’d have to do in any other country otherwise it would look like Russia is doubting the legitimacy of its own claims by making an exception for these locals. If Putin didn’t get around to decreeing that this is finally done within less than six months, the timeframe of which suggests approximately how long he expects the peace process to last at max, then that category of residents would literally be above the law.

From there, Ukraine could claim that Russia is “atoning for its guilty conscience of illegally occupying foreign land” by letting the locals over whom the state assumed responsibility “preserve their separate Ukrainian legal status”, thus serving as the pretext for Kiev to meddle in those lands after hostilities end. By mandating that they voluntarily legalize their presence in line with Russian law or be deported, Moscow neutralizes Kiev’s aforesaid claims, thus delegitimizing any post-conflict meddling on that basis.

In other words, this decree is meant to facilitate the incipient peace process by fortifying Russia’s legal claims to the four former Ukrainian regions that unified with it after September’s 2022 referenda, which reaffirms that Russia won’t cede these lands since they’re now being fully treated as integral territories. They were constitutionally considered as such for over two and a half years, but local bureaucracy took a long time to catch up in all legal regards, though that’s finally changing as a result of Putin’s decree.

Ukraine will predictably try to exploit this move by claiming that it amounts to some violation of the locals’ rights, but the reality is that locals can continue living as they were before the latest phase of the conflict broke out in early 2022, they just have to abide by Russian law. That was already the case ever since the state assumed responsibility for them, but it’ll now be more strictly enforced as the situation begins normalizing, which will likely lead to a ramping up of the FSB’s counter-intelligence operations.

After all, some of these same locals might remain loyal to Ukraine even after legalizing their presence, in which case they could gather and pass along intelligence about local military-political developments and/or carry out acts of terrorism. That was always a threat and will remain one far into the future, albeit under more difficult conditions for Kiev’s assets than ever before as these lands complete their integration into Russia after Putin’s latest decree with all that entails for strengthening local security.