(评论)
(comments)

原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43618617

Hacker News 上的一个帖子讨论了欧盟在近期关税公告之前向美国提出的“零关税换零关税”的方案。一些人认为美国的回应只是做做样子,体现了谈判中的不诚实。有人认为,如果美国的目的是刺激国内制造业,那么他们可能会拒绝零关税。反驳观点认为,特朗普的真实目标不明确,似乎是由他对贸易逆差的简单化理解所驱动的。 另一位评论者建议欧洲应该与美国保持距离。该帖子还分析了特朗普的谈判风格,认为他看似鲁莽的行动和“震慑”战术是一种经过精心计算的策略,以获得谈判筹码,即使这被认为是不尊重的。通过表现得不可预测,他获得了“疯狗光环”,这可能有利于他的谈判地位。


原文
Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login
EU offered 'zero-for-zero' deal to US weeks before tariff announcement (theguardian.com)
8 points by andsoitis 28 minutes ago | hide | past | favorite | 5 comments










I would think this re-inforces the performative aspects of the situation. It is very hard to see good-faith negotiations existing between these trade blocs if an offer like this was not discussed seriously.

I believe a reddit observation I have read is that Musk called for "zero tariffs with europe" and a response was "it was 1.4 to 1.5% on average between the US and EU before you blew this up"



If one was to believe the goal is to move manufacturing back to the states, a zero for zero would never be considered, as it wouldn't move the needle on the wanted end state.


Key word, "if".

Trump hasn't stated that goal. It's unclear he has a particular goal in mind other than "trade deficits bad, tariffs can fix trade deficits therefore tariffs good".



The sooner Europe turns away from the U.S., the better. I understand that realpolitik is at play, but the U.S. can barely afford to fight the Houthis at the moment, nevermind an entire planet who evicts their military bases.


I don’t like Trump and I think it’s dystopian that we have basically a reality tv star in the white house.

However - I do think it’s interesting how his over the top bravado is translated into stupidity by the media. Like he is all about shock and awe negotiating. He doesn’t mean everything he says or does in a direct way, much of it is for effect. When he drops massive tariffs on everyone at once, it’s intended to force people to the table to negotiate with an uncomfortable starting position for them.

Obviously there are side effects in the market, and it is kind of disrespectful in the current political culture, but I think it remains to be seen whether these will even be long term effects. If a few major countries capitulate in the next couple of weeks I think the market will probably catch its breath.

In this case trump probably feels that he has the leverage to achieve a net positive arrangement and not just a neutral one. If someone is treating you badly for a while, which is not objectively true about the EU necessarily but clearly trump thinks it, it’s normal human behavior to not settle for a draw unless you are the weaker party.

The media is almost doing him a favor in a way, like portraying him as being so crazy that he “just might do it”. They’re giving him a mad dog aura. Hmm.







Join us for AI Startup School this June 16-17 in San Francisco!


Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact



Search:
联系我们 contact @ memedata.com