侧边末日 (Cèbiān mòrì)
The Sideprocalypse

原始链接: https://johan.hal.se/wrote/2026/02/03/the-sideprocalypse/

这篇观点认为,建立成功的独立SaaS企业的梦想实际上已经破灭。作者引用了一句瑞典谚语——“elda för kråkorna”(为乌鸦生火)——来阐释在大型企业和日益强大的AI工具主导的格局下,努力的徒劳无功。 核心论点是,质量和技术技能不再是差异化因素。现有的巨头控制着分销,用户期望已经降低到接受劣质体验。此外,*每一个*好的想法都已经受到资金雄厚、营销能力更强的企业的考虑。 作者认为,未来在于高接触的企业销售,以及与既定企业保持一致。虽然AI“推动者”目前正在煽动狂热,但他们的努力最终将毫无成果,只会让拥有底层基础设施——“数据中心和GPU乌鸦”的公司受益。个人代码的价值正在迅速降低,使独立软件开发成为一项亏损的提议。

最近Hacker News上的一场讨论,源于一篇名为“Sideprocalypse”的文章,讨论的核心是人们正在从完全依赖数字产品转向实物商品。一位转向实物商品的创业者认为,尽管利润率可能较低,但实物商品“更容易销售”,因为需求更明显。 另一方面,另一位评论者指出,数字产品的广泛分发现在变得更可行和更经济实惠,这有利于拥有成熟细分市场的企业。这种易于分发的特性使竞争环境更加公平,允许企业拓展到新的市场。 然而,第三位用户表达了担忧,认为这种转变代表着一种悲观的、依赖大型企业以求自保的趋势。这场对话凸显了独立创作者和企业在数字产品市场面临挑战时所经历的不断变化的环境。
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原文

You can't open a feed today without having AI boosters fling word salad like "agentic engineering" or "openclaw" into your beautiful but disapproving face. I'm terrible at predicting the future—you should ask me about selling NVIDIA stock in early 2022 some time—but one thing seems abundantly clear at this point.

There's a wonderful Swedish proverb called "elda för kråkorna" (building a fire for the crows) that evokes the futility of someone lighting a nice warm fire indoors and then throwing the doors wide open, inviting the snow and sleet. Are you one of the thousands of developers with dreams of building a little SaaS on the side? Something you've been thinking about for a while, hacking away at on evenings and weekends, dreaming of the day you can have a couple of hundred paying customers giving you $19.99 a month?

Sorry to be the bringer of bad news, but that dream's dead. Doornail. Dodo. Parrot.

Every minute you put into that thing, be it your own time or your LLM agent's, is a minute for the crows. Imagine that beautiful but fragile little idea of yours curled up in a freshly-dug pit in your backyard, Claude and Gemini standing over it, chuckling and high-fiving each other.

Listen: every idea you've ever had, every single one, some cocaine-addled sales critter has had too. And they're better than you at SEO.

What's that you're saying? Yours actually works and is higher quality, because you know about things like TTFP and INP and "not putting your Supabase god-token in the client"? Oh, you sweet summer child: I take no pleasure in this but I need to tell you that these things don't matter anymore. Quality is not a metric anyone cares about in 2026. We've all been conditioned to accept tombstone spinners on first load or purchase flows that straight-up don't work, and there are walled gardens and tollbooths everywhere you look. React ate the web, Safari kneecapped it, Google stopped linking to it, and none of the Zaibatsu US corporations who hold the cards want you to succeed. The future, if there is a future in software, lies in high-touch enterprise sales. There are a select few companies allowed to make money on the Internet today, and if you have any sense of self-preservation you need to glom onto one of those and hold it like the Dickens. Give up those childish dreams of independence.

If you're a hopeful SaaS builder you may be first in line, but you can at least take grim satisfaction in the fact that the sloptimists, the hype-men, the breathless agents-are-working-while-I-sleep people, they're equally fucked when this all comes home to roost. The marginal value of code today is—well, possibly not zero, since the people selling spades for this frantic gold rush are doing okay for now—but it's dropping like a lead balloon. Josh Collinsworth has it right, AI boosterism is a class privilege. But rest assured that this revolution, too, will end up eating its own. They fancy themselves the masters of mighty bot armies, an unstoppable force at their fingertips that will build them a software empire. But nobody will find it, nobody will pay for it, and all those tokens will have been burned for someone else's gain, a sad bonfire offering to the datacenter and GPU crows cawing overhead.

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