First we warned that data centers would become drone targets, and then IRGC strikes hit Amazon AWS and Microsoft-linked AI infrastructure across the Gulf. Next, we flagged water desalination plants as another target. Now, with reports that a desalination facility in Iran has been struck, it is increasingly clear that this conflict has no boundaries when it comes to civilian infrastructure.

On Saturday morning, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi took to X and claimed that U.S. military forces had "committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island."

"Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted. Attacking Iran's infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran," Araghchi said.

Shortly after Araghchi's post, a Community Note attached to his tweet read, "There is currently no independent confirmation from international media or monitoring organizations that the U.S. attacked a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island."

Whether confirmed or not, the worst-case scenario for the conflict is one in which freshwater desalination plants are targeted, either intentionally or by accident.

This risk was first raised earlier last week by Bloomberg commodities analyst Javier Blas, who said, "A lot of attention about 'soft targets' like hotels and airports. And about oil/gas facilities. But please keep an eye on what may prove the most strategic asset for Persian Gulf countries: water desalination plants."

Desalination plants are critical infrastructure for many Gulf states because almost all of the region's freshwater comes from either desalinating seawater or pumping from deep aquifers. Dependence on these plants is especially high: 90% in Kuwait, 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE comes from desalination.

IRGC targeting of the data centers is another way of Tehran telling Gulf states aligned with the U.S. that the regime can turn off their AI data centers. Let's just hope the IRGC does not become enraged enough and begin signaling to Gulf states that it can turn off the region's water. That would be a worst-case scenario and spark humanitarian emergencies for millions of people.