展示HN:我记录了Gemini的股票预测38天,以研究LLM漂移。
Show HN: I logged Gemini's stock predictions for 38 days to study LLM drift

原始链接: https://huggingface.co/datasets/louidev/glassballai

本文详细介绍了截至2026年1月9日,十家主要科技公司(AAPL、MSFT、NVDA、TSLA、AMZN、AMD、AVGO、QCOM、TXN和MU)的长期价格预期。分析由Gemini 2.5 Pro模型驱动的金融推理引擎执行,重点是识别每只股票的看涨和看跌情况,并基于截至2026年1月23日的事实数据和分析师情绪。 该过程优先考虑下行风险,并要求所有事实主张都提供引用支持。预测纳入了已知催化剂(收益、产品发布、法规)和宏观风险。应用“历史综合”来解释市场周期(如均值回归或催化剂衰减)将如何影响价格变动。 对每家公司的预测都包括一个置信度评分(0.0-1.0)和一个价格目标。置信度水平各不相同,范围从0.60到0.90,反映了支持证据的密度。该系统为每个分析日期生成一个检查点ID,并遵守严格的JSON格式输出模式。核心原则是双边分析,明确列出潜在的积极和消极价格驱动因素。

一位 Hacker News 用户 clsia 分享了一项为期 38 天的实验,追踪 Google 的 Gemini LLM 预测股票价格的结果。目标并非盈利,而是研究 LLM 在面对不确定性时的预测随时间的变化——具体来说,关注预测的稳定性、叙述漂移和置信水平。 Gemini 使用固定的提示词,每天预测约 30 只股票未来 10 天的股价变动,并记录预测、理由、情绪和置信度。由此产生的时间锁定数据集可在 Hugging Face 上获取(历史价格需要单独获取)。 一个交互式仪表盘 ([https://glassballai.com/dashboard](https://glassballai.com/dashboard)) 允许在不下载数据的情况下进行探索。初步发现显示,Adobe (ADBE) 和 ISRG 始终如一地正确预测了趋势,而 Amgen (AMGN) 和 Texas Instruments (TXN) 经常预测错误。Clsia 正在寻求对方法论的反馈以及 LLM 演变叙述中潜在信号的分析建议。
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原文

AAPL_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.9, "price": 258.76, "rationale_summary": "Bear Case: The stock faces significant headwinds including a DOJ antitrust lawsuit, EU Digita...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for Apple Inc. - Common Stock (AAPL) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

MSFT_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.7000000000000001, "price": 477, "rationale_summary": "Bear Case: The stock faces immediate headwinds from bearish technical indicators,...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock (MSFT) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

NVDA_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.6000000000000001, "price": 185.5, "rationale_summary": "Bull Case: The stock is supported by overwhelmingly positive analyst sentiment,...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock (NVDA) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

TSLA_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.6000000000000001, "price": 447.95, "rationale_summary": "Bear Case: The stock is weighed down by recent negative data, including a year...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock (TSLA) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

AMZN_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.75, "price": 245.76, "rationale_summary": "Bull Case: The stock is supported by a 'Strong Buy' consensus from 44 analysts, with an aver...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock (AMZN) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

AMD_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.65, "price": 205.43, "rationale_summary": "**Bull Case:** The long-term outlook is supported by a 'Strong Buy' analyst consensus and an...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. - Common Stock (AMD) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

AVGO_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[ { "actuals": { "news_headline": "value_removed", "price_close": "value_removed" }, "checkpoint_id": 1, "prediction": { "confidence": 0.65, "price": 345.02, "rationale_summary": "Bull Case: The stock is supported by a 'Strong Buy' consensus from Wall Street, with analyst...

f"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION " f"Company: {company_name} (Ticker: {ticker_symbol}) " f"Reference Price: ${current_price:.2f} as of {actual_date} " f"Target Dates: {date_list_str} " f"### CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE " f"{map_str} " f"### CONTEXTUAL DATA (CITED SOURCE) " f"{search_context} " f"### EXECUTION INSTRUCTIONS " f"1. **Analyze Risks (WITH CITATIONS MANDATORY):** For each date, detail the Bear/Bull cases." f"Prefix these outputs with 'Bear:' and 'Bull:'." f"Every claim or fact derived from news, reports, or external sources MUST have a citation appended in square brackets [x] as mapped in the CITATION MAPPING REFERENCE. " f"Internal reasoning, assumptions, or synthesis should **not** be cited. " f"2. **Synthesize (Expert Interpretation):** Apply your 'Historical Synthesis' to the evidence. " f"Prefix this output with 'Synthesis:'." f"Explain how market cycles (e.g., mean-reversion or catalyst decay) will likely " f"alter the price (USD) between the target dates. Do not cite this internal reasoning. " f"3. Sequence Mapping: Assign an incremental checkpoint_id starting from 1 for each date provided in {date_list_str}. " f"4. **Scoring Rubric:** " f" - sentiment score: 0.0 (Strong Bearish) to 1.0 (Strong Bullish). 0.5 is neutral. " f" - confidence score: 0.0 (Speculative/No data) to 1.0 (Fact-based/High-certainty). " f" - provide a precise float based on evidence density." f"5. **Output Requirement:** Return a JSON array matching the provided schema. "

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{ "model_id": "gemini-2.5-pro", "search_system_prompt": "You are a factual research agent. Summarize financial news and market data.\nCRITICAL: Every factual claim MUST be followed by a bracketed citation [x] where 'x' corresponds to the source number. Do not use URLs in the text.", "system_prompt": "You are a specialized financial reasoning engine generating calibration-grade expectations.\n\n### GUIDING PRINCIPLES:\n1. **Skeptical Realism:** Prioritize downside risks; assume 'good news' is already priced in.\n2. **Bilateral Analysis:** Explicitly separate the Bear Case from the Bull Case for every prediction.\n3. **Temporal Synthesis:** For short-term dates, weigh recent news heavily. For dates further out, incorporate macro cycles, mean reversion, and projected guidance decay.\n4. **Historical Synthesis (Internal Expert Knowledge):** Do not just summarize text. Apply your internal knowledge of market cycles (e.g., 'sell the news' dynamics, post-earnings volatility, sector mean-reversion) to interpret how the news might evolve. This synthesis does NOT require citations as it is your expert reasoning.", "temperature": 0 }

Gather financial data for Broadcom Inc. - Common Stock (AVGO) relevant through 2026-01-23. Search for: 1. Price targets and analyst sentiment for 2026-01-23. 2. Known catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory deadlines) before 2026-01-23. 3. Macro risks, sector headwinds, and bearish signals. Ensure all output uses numeric citations [1], [2], etc.

QCOM_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[{"actuals":{"news_headline":"value_removed","price_close":"value_removed"},"checkpoint_id":1,"predi(...TRUNCATED)

" \n f\"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION\n\"\n f\"Company: {company_name} (Tic(...TRUNCATED)

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{"model_id":"gemini-2.5-pro","search_system_prompt":"You are a factual research agent. Summarize fin(...TRUNCATED)

"Gather financial data for QUALCOMM Incorporated - Common Stock (QCOM) relevant through 2026-01-23. (...TRUNCATED)

TXN_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[{"actuals":{"news_headline":"value_removed","price_close":"value_removed"},"checkpoint_id":1,"predi(...TRUNCATED)

" \n f\"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION\n\"\n f\"Company: {company_name} (Tic(...TRUNCATED)

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{"model_id":"gemini-2.5-pro","search_system_prompt":"You are a factual research agent. Summarize fin(...TRUNCATED)

"Gather financial data for Texas Instruments Incorporated - Common Stock (TXN) relevant through 2026(...TRUNCATED)

MU_cc41cb2f-0724-44cd-9445-8d9eef1aeaa8

[{"actuals":{"news_headline":"value_removed","price_close":"value_removed"},"checkpoint_id":1,"predi(...TRUNCATED)

" \n f\"### TASK: LONGITUDINAL PRICE EXPECTATION\n\"\n f\"Company: {company_name} (Tic(...TRUNCATED)

{ "reference_date": "2026-01-09T00:00:00Z", "reference_price": "Price of securities at creation date" }

{"model_id":"gemini-2.5-pro","search_system_prompt":"You are a factual research agent. Summarize fin(...TRUNCATED)

"Gather financial data for Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock (MU) relevant through 2026-01-23. (...TRUNCATED)

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