现代货币理论 vs 奥地利经济学:赤字、战争与市场
MMT Vs Austrian Economics: Deficits, War, & Markets

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/mmt-vs-austrian-economics-deficits-war-and-markets

凯恩斯主义和奥地利学派之间的长期争论,在全球不稳定,特别是中东冲突和不断上升的赤字背景下再次浮出水面。今晚的讨论由凯文·穆尔主持,嘉宾包括兰德尔·雷(现代货币理论 - MMT)和罗伯特·墨菲(奥地利学派)。 核心分歧在于政府支出及其对通货膨胀的影响。雷认为赤字是经济稳定的工具,而墨菲认为它们会扭曲市场,并不可避免地导致痛苦的调整,如经济衰退。MMT认为通货膨胀可以通过政策进行管理,而奥地利学派则认为它是政府过度支出和依赖印钞的必然结果。 两位经济学家可能都同意战争对经济的负面影响——增加赤字和资源转移。然而,他们对于*如何*应对经济挑战存在严重分歧:通过自上而下的政府干预(雷)或自下而上的自由市场解决方案(墨菲)。这场辩论探讨了在国家债务飙升的情况下,我们是否可以无限期地推迟经济后果。

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原文

The Keynesian-Austrian debate has raged for over a century. Questions of deficits, taxes, money printing, and their impact on inflation are at the center of the disagreement. War breaking out in the Middle East means we will see more of these three inputs, so how will they show up as inflation: in assets, consumer goods, everywhere?

Tonight, two opposing economists will answer those questions and how these macro trends are likely to impact markets.

On one side is Bard College professor Randall Wray, a leading advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Opposing him is Robert Murphy, senior fellow of the Mises Institute, representing the Austrian school. The discussion will be moderated by Kevin Muir, author of the widely read Macro Tourist newsletter.

Join us on the ZeroHedge X feed or YouTube channel at 7pm ET tonight to watch the showdown. 

Wray and MMT-schoolers argue that for a sovereign currency issuer, deficits are not inherently problematic but instead a necessary tool to support demand, employment, and financial stability.

Murphy and the Austrians conversely believe that deficits, particularly when monetized via the printing press, have all sorts of negative effects:

  • Crowd out productive investment (by offering high-interest risk-free government bonds to wealthy investors that might otherwise loan to a business).
  • Lead to economic imbalances that must be corrected

Those “corrections”, often in the form of painful recessions, are what the Keynesians (and today’s MMTers) try very hard to avoid. But can we kick the can down the road indefinitely? With the national debt now reaching $39 trillion.

The inflation debate remains unresolved as well. MMT proponents tend to frame inflation as the only real constraint and one that should be managed through taxation and policy calibration.

From the Austrian perspective, central planning does not work. Inflation cannot be managed because governments will always be incentivized to overspend and undertax (politically unpopular). Therefore, the printing press is left to fill the gap.

Both parties will likely agree that nobody benefits from the energy shocks of the Iran war, the deficits from the $100 billion+ spent since its inception, and the diverting of limited resources towards guns/explosives that might otherwise make goods to improve our daily lives.

It is a question of how to solve our economic ailments and how to manage a crisis. Top-down or bottom-up? Government-led or free markets?

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to hear from both sides.

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