法国选举：社会党赢得巴黎，勒庞的民粹主义者取得历史性地方进展。

法国选举：社会党赢得巴黎，勒庞的民粹主义者取得历史性地方进展。
French Election: Socialists Secure Paris, LePen's Populists Make Historic Local Gains

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/french-election-socialists-secure-paris-lepens-populists-make-historic-local-gains

马琳·勒佩恩的国民联盟（RN）在最近的法国地方选举中取得了迄今为止最好的成绩，预示着从抗议运动向真正的执政力量的转变。该党控制了数十个市镇，包括在尼斯市赢得前保守派埃里克·西奥蒂当选市长这一重要的象征性胜利。RN主席乔丹·巴尔代拉称这些结果为“突破”，反映了选民日益增长的变革愿望。虽然RN取得了显著进展，尤其是在法国南部，但由于针对他们的策略联盟，他们在马赛、图伦和尼姆等大城市遭遇挫折。该党在巴黎和其他大型城市仍然处于边缘地位。这些结果凸显了选民对移民、犯罪和生活成本等问题的沮丧，并暴露了传统右翼内部的裂痕。RN的成功为2027年总统选举提供了强大的地方权力基础和行政经验，可能会将勒佩恩或巴尔代拉（取决于勒佩恩资格的法律裁决）定位为认真的竞争者，并可能重塑法国与欧盟和跨大西洋联盟的关系。投票率 historically 低。

原文

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally delivered its strongest performance ever in French local elections on Sunday, capturing dozens of municipalities and installing an ally as mayor of Nice - while socialists predictably held onto key urban centers, including Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Lille.

The results of the second-round municipal vote on Sunday mark the clearest sign yet that the populist party is no longer a protest movement but a genuine governing force in parts of France - and a growing threat to President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists and the traditional right ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old RN president widely seen as the party’s next presidential standard-bearer, hailed the night as “the greatest breakthrough in its entire history.” Speaking to cheering supporters, he said voters had delivered “a message of deep aspiration for change.”

Marine Le Pen, still battling a conviction that could bar her from running in 2027, struck a similar note: the party is now “implanted everywhere” and ready to govern.

Yet the evening was far from a rout. While the RN and its allies picked up control of smaller and mid-sized towns - including Carcassonne, Castres, Agde, Liévin, Vierzon and La Flèche - and as noted above, it lost high-stakes runoffs in Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes after left-wing and center-right candidates formed tactical alliances against it. In Paris and other major cities, the party remained marginal.

The party did secure one major symbolic prize: former Les Républicains leader Éric Ciotti, who defected to the RN orbit, won the mayor’s office in Nice, France’s fifth-largest city.

What Happened: Full Results Breakdown

First Round (March 15): The RN posted record scores in many areas, especially in the south. It led or tied in key races including Marseille (neck-and-neck with the incumbent Socialist mayor) and performed strongly in Toulon, Nîmes, and Carcassonne.
Second Round Runoffs (March 22):
- Wins and Holds: Retained Perpignan (its largest city). Secured new victories in mid-sized and smaller towns including Carcassonne, Castres, Agde, Liévin, Vierzon, and La Flèche. Overall, the party and its allies are set to govern dozens more municipalities than before.
- Major Symbolic Victory: RN ally Éric Ciotti (a former mainstream conservative who defected) won Nice, France’s fifth-largest city — a landmark urban gain.
- Setbacks in Big Cities:
  - Marseille: Incumbent left-wing mayor Benoît Payan cruised to re-election with ~54% against RN candidate Franck Allisio (~39%).
  - Toulon and Nîmes: RN candidates lost despite strong first-round leads, defeated by united opposition slates.
  - Paris, Lyon, and other major urban centers: RN remained marginal (e.g., just 1.6% in Paris).

Turnout hit a historic low (~48%), underscoring voter fatigue but also strategic bloc voting against the far right.

A new local power base - and a launchpad for 2027

Until now, the National Rally’s weakness has always been local: it struggled to field experienced candidates, build alliances or win runoffs. That changed Sunday. The party enters the next electoral cycle with real administrative experience, control of budgets in dozens more towns, and a proven ability to turn first-round strength into second-round wins in its southern heartlands.

Analysts say the gains reflect deep voter frustration over immigration, crime and the cost of living - issues the RN has hammered relentlessly while softening its image under Le Pen and Bardella. In Marseille, where drug-related violence has made headlines for years, the RN candidate came within striking distance before the left held on.

The results also expose the continuing fracture on the traditional right. Ciotti’s victory in Nice - after he was essentially expelled from Les Républicains for moving too close to Le Pen - underscores how the mainstream conservative camp is splintering, with pieces drifting toward the RN.

What it means for Macron - and for Europe

Macron’s centrist bloc, already reeling from the 2024 legislative elections that left parliament hung, now faces another warning. The president has 13 months to rebuild credibility before voters choose his successor. His prime minister, Michel Barnier, offered a cautious reaction, saying the results “confirm the fragmentation of our political landscape.”

For Europe, an RN victory in 2027 would be massive - as the party has pledged to challenge EU migration rules, renegotiate France’s relationship with Brussels, and take a harder line on support for Ukraine. A Le Pen or Bardella presidency would align Paris more closely with populist governments in Italy, Hungary and the Netherlands - and put new pressure on the transatlantic alliance.

Of course, Le Pen’s own legal fate looms over the festivities. She is appealing a conviction for misusing European Parliament funds, which carries a potential five-year ban from public office. A decision is expected this summer. If the ban stands, Bardella - younger, smoother and less burdened by the party’s toxic history - would almost certainly become the candidate.