Recently-resigned director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent told antiwar.com editor Scott Horton that a narrow window for de-escalation still exists, but only if Donald Trump is willing to confront what Kent repeatedly described as the core constraint on U.S. strategy: Israel.
“I think he's got to address the Israeli issue first and foremost… and demand and force them to stop going on the offense.”
Kent addressed Trump’s recent public comments urging restraint, specifically that Israel halt strikes on energy infrastructure, but warned that rhetorical pressure alone would prove ineffective. According to Kent, past behavior suggests compliance would be temporary at best.
“If you tell them that they need to stop… they might back off for a week or so, but they're not going to listen to you.”
“Take Away Their Ability”
Kent outlined what he sees as the only viable leverage: withdrawing U.S. defensive support unless Israel shifts fully to a defensive posture.
“You have to take away their ability to do that… we’re not going to support you while you’re on the offense.”
Tying American support to Israeli operational restraint would be a massive structural change in the U.S.-Israel relationship (if actually carried out in practice) as it is something rarely done by past Presidents on both sides of the aisle.
Kent argued that U.S. and Israeli endgames in Iran are no longer aligned. While Washington may seek limited military objectives, he described Israel’s aims as far more expansive, and far more destabilizing.
“The Israelis want full regime change… and have a very high tolerance for chaos.”
He warned that such an outcome would carry severe downstream consequences from increased terrorism threats in the continental U.S. to yet another immigration crisis for Europe to unsustainable oil prices.
“That would be absolutely catastrophic… for the world energy trade.”
A Narrow Window For A Deal
Despite the escalation, Kent believes President Trump can still make a deal and secure a diplomatic off-ramp, signaling that backchannel negotiations could be underway already.
“We already saw… [Bessent] talking about lifting the sanctions on some of the Iranian oil that's already on the water.”
Kent emphasized that “only Donald Trump can do it,” showing there is still optimism for the President he served just days ago and accused of launching a war of choice on behalf of Israel.
“I think we have a lot of potential right now to get that deal.”
The throughline of Kent’s argument is that absent a shift in U.S. policy, the current trajectory is self-reinforcing.
“To let the Israelis continue to… drive the strategic objectives… that is not doing any service for the American people,” he said, adding that if nothing changes “we’re going to continue to be in this cycle.”
Watch Horton’s full interview below: