Palantir shares gained 4% by early afternoon trading after Reuters reported over the weekend that the Department of War plans to designate its Maven artificial intelligence system as an official program of record. Wall Street views this report as a bullish catalyst and a meaningful validation of Palantir's long-term role in military command-and-control AI software.
Reuters cited a letter from Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg to DoW heads earlier this month that said embedding the Maven Smart System would provide warfighters "with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains."
According to Feinberg's letter, the official decision is not expected to materialize by the close of the current fiscal year, which ends in September.
The letter ordered that oversight of Maven be shifted from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency to DoW's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office within 30 days. It also noted that any future contracting with Palantir will be done through the Army.
Maven in use.
"It is imperative that we invest now and with focus to deepen the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) across the Joint Force and establish AI-enabled decision-making as the cornerstone of our strategy," Feinberg wrote.
Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries told clients, "The DoW's intention to deploy Maven is growing and will likely be a staple of the command-and-control infrastructure for a long time to come."
When Piper began covering Palantir in October, its "primary thesis for the government business was unparalleled wallet share opportunity driven by a profound shift from large cost-intensive assets to agile low-cost strategies enabled by software & unmanned systems," Jeffries said.
He added, "Investors underappreciate how much of the $1T+ annual defense budget may shift to software-specific capabilities that work in the background to support all of the new autonomous system form factors being created in industry."
Jeffries maintained an "Overweight" rating with a 12-month price target of $230.
Dan Ives of Wedbush told clients that the Maven adoption "further solidified the US military's long-term use of Palantir's technology across the Pentagon" as well as "streamlined the company's deals across all branches of the military while providing long-term funding to Palantir."
Ives expects Palantir to ink more deals with the federal government. "We continue to believe that PLTR has a golden path in the AI Revolution and this designation represents another opportunity for PLTR to capitalize while continuing to generate unprecedented traction for its entire portfolio across the federal landscape."
Ives holds the same stock rating and price target as Piper's Jeffries.
Bloomberg data show that, across Wall Street, 20 analysts, or about 66.7%, rate the stock a "Buy," while 8 rate it a "Hold," and 2 rate it a "Sell."
Palantir shares were up 4% in afternoon trading in New York, though the stock remains down about 12% year to date. Even after today's move, shares are still roughly 24.5% below their early November peak of $207.
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