A steady flow of headlines continue to point in the direction of escalation in Iran and around the Persian Gulf, even as President Trump has touted backchannel dialogue with Tehran, which Iranian leaders have denied.
The NY Times writes Monday afternoon, "Senior military officials are weighing a possible deployment of a combat brigade from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division and some elements of the division’s headquarters staff to support U.S. military operations in Iran, defense officials said."
A combat brigade would suggest some 3,000 additional elite soldiers, as the thousands of Marines currently still en route from Japan as well as from San Diego. The first group of Marines is reportedly expected to arrive to the Mideast region Friday, which would coincide with President Trump's announced five day pause on energy infrastructure strikes.
US officials speaking to the Times have made clear that the Airborne planning is just that - a preparatory phase which has not formally been ordered by the Pentagon or CENTCOM.
All of this comes amid speculation that Trump could order some kind of assault and takeover of Kharg Island:
Another possibility being considered, should President Trump authorize U.S. troops to seize the island, is an attack by about 2,500 troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is on its way to the region.
The airfield on Kharg Island was damaged by the recent U.S. bombing raids so former U.S. commanders said it was more likely to first bring in Marines, whose combat engineers could quickly repair airfields and other airport infrastructure. Once the airfield is repaired, the Air Force could start flowing matériel and supplies, as well as troops, if necessary, by C-130s.
In that scenario, it is possible that the troops from the 82nd Airborne would augment the Marines. The upside of going with paratroopers is they can arrive overnight. The downside is they do not bring any heavy equipment, such as heavily armored vehicles, that would offer protection if Iranian forces counterattacked, current and former officials said.
The whole proposed mission laid out above seems like a longshot, in terms of the potential to go well, and without the US side sustaining a lot of casualties. Army Airborne troops can be rapidly deployed, and would likely support a bigger Marine assault.
Kharg Island is after all hundreds of miles deep into the Persian Gulf and strait, where Iran controls the coastline and can fire on any vessel from there. The Pentagon has said it is softening Iran's defenses along the coast, but what can be accomplished by airpower alone is limited, according to most sources. An airborne or heliborne insertion also carries huge risks.
The 'realist' publication run by the Quincy Institute, Responsible Statecraft, has gone so far as to call it a suicide mission:
Kharg Island has been on the map for Pentagon planners for decades. President Jimmy Carter weighed bombing it or seizing it during the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis but demurred. Incredibly, in 1988, Donald Trump himself suggested seizing Kharg during his "Art of the Deal" book tour.
Today, Kharg appears to be back in the headlines thanks to Michael Rubin, an American Enterprise Institute scholar and former Iraq Coalition Provisional Authority official who says taking Kharg is a “no-brainer” and has pitched the operation to White House officials.
...The tactical picture is even worse. For the troops unlucky enough to receive orders to take Kharg, the operation would land somewhere between a suicide mission and a self-imposed hostage crisis.
Given the size of the objective (five miles long), the substantial civilian population there, the need to hold it indefinitely, and the lack of surprise, the U.S. would need thousands of troops for the mission. Available units include the incoming MEU’s 1,200-strong Marine battalion landing team, the 82nd Airborne’s “ready brigade” (the 82nd just cancelled scheduled maneuvers, fueling speculation that it could be headed to the Middle East), the 75th Ranger Regiment, and other quick-to mobilize units, or even regular Army battalions already deployed to Kuwait. In theory, Trump has over 10,000 troops at his disposal in coming weeks, though there’s been no public discussion of sending that large a force (yet).
Even if the US did take Kharg, this would immediately present the next problem of 'what next?'. The US would have to hold it, perhaps while waiting for some kind of political capitulation from Tehran which is unlikely to come.
Indefinitely defending a strategic island so deep in Iran's own backyard and territory, with all the logistical challenges, would present all new challenges.
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Getting closer to boots on the ground?...that one thing Trump repeatedly pledged never to do:
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