By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Trump’s 48-hour deadline turned into a weeklong one. Yesterday, the US president announced that he has “instructed the department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period.”
President Trump says he delayed the actions following “very good and productive conversations” with Iran, which he expects to continue throughout the week. However, reports about these talks are inconsistent at best. Iranian media reported that no such talks have taken place, to which Trump responded that he is not sure what they are talking about, adding that talks happened last night. Other media say that there has been some contact via backchannels or via third parties, but add that actual talks have not happened.
Was it all a dream? Or is the US president simply unwilling to follow through on his threats? Iran called Trump’s bluff, threatening to retaliate against energy infrastructure and desalination plants in neighbouring countries. US allies may have convinced Trump that this would create a much bigger crisis in the region. So, perhaps Trump is just buying time for an alternative form of escalation. The new deadline coincides with the expected arrival of US marines in the region.
Either way, Trump’s change of tone boosted risk sentiment and supported equity portfolios, particularly of those who just so happened to place large orders ahead of the presidential social media post. But markets may be dreaming too.
Further escalation has been averted for now, but don’t forget that Iran does not need to escalate. Iran continues to have full control over the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the regime is willing and able to execute pinpointed strikes, sailing through will be a prohibitively dangerous endeavour. And, the longer even an impasse lasts, the bigger the damage to energy supply chains and economies.
Moreover, while Trump is now talking about de-escalating the scenario and a potential peaceful resolution, Iran continues missile strikes on Israel – and Israel presses ahead with its military campaign. And several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council signaled willingness to join the fight against Iran. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting their energy exports, so the GCC nations may see a role for themselves to ensure that the Strait is reopened. But, more importantly, Iran’s retaliatory strikes against targets in neighbouring countries –and threats of more– may have struck a nerve.
As a result, some of the optimism waned this morning already. Energy prices are rebounding from yesterday’s lows, and equity traders are once again taking a more cautious stance than they did after Trump’s social media post yesterday.
Speaking of the economic damage caused, Eurozone consumer confidence took a significant hit in March, falling back to -16.3 from -12.3 in February. With the previous energy crisis still fresh in memory, that is no surprise. Faltering confidence has yet to affect actual consumer spending, but this does raise the risk that the war’s impact on economic activity in Europe could be visible relatively quickly.
Amidst the geopolitical risks, the EU continues to seek diversification of its economic alliances. Brussels signed a free trade agreement with Australia, following on the deals with Mercosur, India, and Indonesia. Parliament still has to approve the deal, but this should be less contested than the Mercosur agreement.
The EU-Australia deal includes a combination of tariff cuts and higher quotas for certain dairy products, beef and sheep meat. Geographical product names are protected by the deal, to the displeasure of Australian farmers, who believe that access to the European market remains impeded.
Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said that the deal should increase annual bilateral trade by about €20 billion over the next decade, but that’s arguably not the EU’s main motivation. A security and defense partnership underscores the geopolitical motive, and improved access to Australia’s critical raw materials may be an extension of this.