As we have noted numerous times in the last week or two, inflation fears are back (or rather stagflation) as growth stagnates and prices re-accelerate...
This morning we get yet more confirmation of the second wave of inflation as US Import/Export prices blew expectations away...
US Import prices jumped by 1.5% MoM (the third monthly rise in a row) - the biggest MoM jump since March 2022.
The acceleration in prices pushed import costs up 1.3% YoY - highest since Feb 2025.
Under the hood, Petroleum, Mining, and Non-manufactured articles were the biggest drivers of the MoM surge in import prices...
But it was memory (RAM) prices that really dominated the MoM increase in import prices...
...and there continues to be no signs of any tariff-driven inflationary impact...
Export prices surged 1.5% MoM - the biggest jump since March 2022 (Russia-Ukraine war) with prices up 3.5% YoY (highest since Sept 2025)
Under the hood, Industrial supplies and Fuels & Lubricants dominated export price hikes...
...and this data is from before the war even started, so expect rate-change odds to shift more hawkish (having already erased any expectations of a cut in 2026).