A senior Western official told Financial Times reporters that new intelligence indicates Moscow is preparing to ship a batch of kamikaze drones to Iran as part of a broader support package, with the US-Iran conflict nearing the one-month mark.
When asked about the drone shipment, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told FT reporters, "There are a lot of fakes going around right now. One thing is true: we are continuing our dialogue with the Iranian leadership."
One thing is certain: Iranian forces have launched what reports estimate to be as many as 3,000 drones at US air bases, energy infrastructure, tankers, and neighboring Gulf states that coordinate with US and allied forces.
FT's report suggests that Iran may need additional drone supplies after an overnight update from Operation Epic Fury, US Central Command Chief Admiral Brad Cooper said Wednesday that US forces had struck their 10,000th target.
"Together, we have struck thousands more, clearly demonstrating that we're stronger together," Cooper said.
Cooper said US forces have severely degraded Iran's missile capabilities and heavily bombarded its missile, drone, and naval production sites. He added that Iran's drone and missile launch rates have collapsed by 90%, and that two-thirds of its military-industrial base has been destroyed or heavily damaged.
Another Western security official told FT that the type of Russian drones in this month's upcoming shipment has yet to be determined. The official said Moscow would likely deliver Geran-2 drones, which are basically copycats of the Iranian-designed Shahed-136.
Geran-2 drones
Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said of the Iranians, "They don't need more drones. They need better drones. They are after the more advanced capabilities."
Nicole Grajewski, a professor at Sciences Po University in Paris who focuses on Russia and Iran, noted, "The Russians dramatically improved the Shaheds, including modifications to the engines, navigation, and anti-jamming capabilities. So these systems are already more advanced than the ones Iran was producing domestically."
Grajewski warned that any new batch of Russian-made drones shipped to Iran could significantly improve the effectiveness of Iranian drone strikes.
Recall that our supply chain report on a crashed Iranian drone found a Russian guidance chip with Western parts in the early days of the conflict. Also, China appears to be making low-cost kamikaze drones for the war (read the report).