Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com 

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned. 

The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.   

“If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” Macquarie’s analysts wrote in the report. 

“The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities,” they added. 

Many other analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz, which is already closed to most tanker traffic for nearly a month, remains blocked for another month or two, oil prices could jump to as high as $150 and even $200 per barrel, forcing a global economic shock.    

Analysts started expressing views that $200 oil is not a fantasy anymore—with 20% of global oil supply choked at the Strait of Hormuz buyers are racing to procure physical cargoes, refiners in Asia consider cutting processing rates, and Asian countries restrict fuel exports. 

Andrew Harbourne, Wood Mackenzie’s senior analyst for oil markets, notes that the record 400-million-barrel release coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) will cover only about four weeks of disruption in the Gulf.

“Strategic stocks remain an effective emergency buffer, but they are a one-off intervention that must eventually be rebuilt and cannot cover a sustained supply gap,” Harbourne added. 

Supply shocks in the past suggest that if the war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Brent crude prices could surge to $150 to $200 per barrel. For some petroleum products, such as diesel and jet fuel, the effective prices could be $200 to $250 a barrel or more, according to WoodMac.