伊朗战争进入“完成阶段”?以色列媒体发出信号。
Off-Ramp In Progress? Israeli Media Signals 'Completion Phase' Of Iran War

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/offramp-progress-israeli-media-signals-completion-phrase-iran-war

与伊朗的冲突爆发一个月后,“史诗怒火行动”启动,美国和以色列正在寻求退出策略,因为最初的目标难以实现。 早期期望像委内瑞拉局势一样迅速实现政权更迭的希望,在伊朗进行重大反击后已经破灭。 美国已将目标从消除伊朗核计划调整为更有限的军事目标——削弱其空军、海军和导弹能力,旨在宣布“任务完成”。 以色列在进行了广泛的轰炸行动后,现在正专注于经济目标,并声称已经基本实现其最初的军事目标,但希望出现的人民起义并未发生。 尽管取得了一些进展,伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡,并保留了一些核能力。 美国尚未排除使用地面部队的可能性,但迹象表明可能会逐步结束行动,可能是在美国压力下,以便在冲突变得更加旷日持久和棘手之前宣布胜利。 然而,过早的宣布可能会让伊朗声称成功,尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡仍然关闭的情况下。

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原文

It's no secret that Washington is looking for an off-ramp amid what has been a steady pattern of escalation with Iran over the past month since Operation Epic Fury began. The White House's anticipated timeline and even list of objectives has seriously shifted since the war's start, as has the scope, given Tehran's 'unexpected' big retaliatory strikes on the Gulf and Israel - including on energy and infrastructure targets.

It seems Trump was thinking Iran could be parallel to the Venezuela situation - where a 'decapitation' operation swiftly removed Maduro and the US basically acknowledged a pliant puppet in his place (Delcy Rodríguez). That's why White House officials at the very start were talking about an operation that would lust just 'days' or maybe a couple weeks. Now, one month in, and we have fresh headlines like this: "Iran war enters its fourth week with no clear end in sight."

The US administration is meanwhile trying to refocus its definable objectives, however overall vision and strategy for a 'mission accomplished' end-goal has been anything but clear. For example, the start of the war saw the White House officially list as an objective the end of Iran's nuclear program and removal of enriched uranium - but that is no longer listed.

Instead, the State Dept. - citing Marco Rubio - has issued the following military objectives in Iran:

1. The destruction of Iran's air force

2. The destruction of their navy

3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability

4. The destruction of their factories

These are much more 'achievable aims' allowing the Trump administration to save face by declaring they've all been met, whenever it wants to proclaim a mission complete situation, and pull Pentagon assets from the theatre.

But the fact that Iran still has de facto hold over the Strait of Hormuz remains a big problem, as does its ongoing nuclear capabilities, despite that nuclear sites have been degraded or possibly destroyed.

One big and somewhat surprising sign that the US-Israeli coalition could be about to wind down the war is that Times of Israel on Monday ran the following headline:

"A month into the war with Iran, the Israeli military has almost completed bombing all of the targets it defined for itself at the start of the conflict, and has now been ordered by Israel’s political leadership to shift to hitting 'economic' targets of the Iranian regime," the publication wrote.

It goes on: "The Israeli Air Force has conducted hundreds of waves of strikes in Iran, dropping over 13,000 bombs on Iranian regime and military sites, including air defense systems, ballistic missile launchers, weapon production sites, some nuclear facilities, and various headquarters."

The same report also details how dozens of top civilian and military leaders have been killed in the campaign, and most importantly longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamnieni. However, the report also mentions one Israeli objecting of "setting the conditions" for some kind of popular uprising which could topple the government, and that has not happened. Still, the language in the report strongly suggests an offramp could be in the works, perhaps under pressure by the United States:

On Saturday, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said that “within a few days” the military would complete targeting all of the “critical” assets of Iran’s military production industries, sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel. The military has also said it has taken out most of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems.

And here's a key line from Times of Israel:

Israel’s defense establishment is now in what it described as the “completion phase” of the goals it set out at the start of the war, meaning it believes it has largely achieved its objectives of degrading Iran’s military capabilities and “creating the conditions” for the Iranian regime to fall, The Times of Israel has learned.

Yet there are still other signs which suggest the war could go on for quite a bit longer, and even turn into a deeper quagmire, given the White House has yet to rule out ground forces.

Is Trump heading toward trying to 'force' a 'mission accomplished' moment? It would be interesting if this happened before the Strait of Hormuz was actually opened up. Such an outcome would probably be used by Iranian officials to instead declare 'victory' for the Islamic Republic.

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