There's been a lot of speculation that the White House is preparing to find a 'mission accomplished' declaration moment, as 'any offramp will do' as a way to avoid a costly potential quagmire of introducing ground troops, and we may be seeing the start of one.
After comments apparently leaked to The Wall Street Journal overnight that Trump is willing to leave Iran with the Strait unopened, the President has clarified his thinking in his out loud voice this morning.
President Trump has posted on social media this morning, clearly signaling he is further down the road towards an off-ramp:
All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you:
Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and
Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.
You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.
Iran has been, essentially, decimated.
The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!
President DJT
The reaction was a drop in the price of oil...
...and stocks rising...
Nothing dramatic in either - as traders remain nervous of Trump-Talk still - but nevertheless, as Goldman's Rich Privorotsky noted overnight (in a seemingly precognitive comment before Trump's tweet), this is shaping up like an off-ramp:
After ~5 weeks of conflict "President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed" (WSJ).
Politically messy (especially in GCC...less so domestically), but probably the least bad short-term pathway (can argue LT worse).
There’s a press conference at 8am EST from the Defense Department.
Overnight saw meaningful escalation… Iran struck a heavily laden oil tanker in Dubai port… a very explicit signal around control of shipping.
Likely in response to US actions around nuclear facilities in Isfahan
(Trump on his Truth Social posted uncaptioned video of large explosion 5 hours ago).
The most bullish near term outcome would be a “mission accomplished” style announcement...
i.e. nuclear capabilities set back materially (say 10–20 years), allowing the US to step away.
No edge here, frankly could be anything but will be watching.
...
The key shift then remains the Strait.
If the US pauses while Iran maintains some level of disruption, the pressure flips… China, Korea, Japan, India, Europe and the GCC all become directly incentivized to force flows back online.
Even partial restrictions (e.g. US/Israeli vessels) are manageable…so a unilateral victory could actually restart flows and shift pressure to ROW to get strait moving.
We will post the live feed here at 0800ET.