Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that a prolonged Iran war will be a net win for Moscow - and a significant setback for Kyiv. Speaking to Axios, he said bluntly: "I am sure Russia wants long war. They have benefits: The US is focusing on the Middle East and may decrease military help to Ukraine.
Further he highlighted that "Sanctions are partially lifted" on Russian energy and so "I see only benefits for Russia from the war with Iran continuing."
The logic is simple, he explained: higher oil prices and softer sanctions boost Russia, while US focus shifts away from Ukraine - as well as attention from Western partners - which ultimately results in tightening weapons supply. "I am not just concerned, I am sure we will have such challenges. Absolutely," he continued.
Zelensky has also been reminding Western audiences that Moscow is actively aiding Iran, including targeting support via intelligence: "I think Russia is supporting Iran directly, 100%… the same format of sharing satellite images like they did in the case of Ukraine," Zelensky asserted.
This will in the long-run result in a weaker Ukraine, particularly given the surging demand for interceptors in the Middle East. But Zelensky has for weeks been arguing that Ukraine needs these defensive missiles, such as Patriots, the most - repeatedly calling the issue a matter of "life and death".
Interestingly and somewhat ironically, this has led to Zelensky sounding like a dove and a peacenik:
"Our advice, when they asked us, was to stop the war as soon as possible and sit for negotiations - even if they can't sit together with Iran - and find a diplomatic way to end the war. But it is up to the sides," he stressed.
Zelensky himself has at various times throughout the war refused any negotiations with Moscow which hinge on making territorial concessions, while demanding more constant flow of arms and ammo from NATO backers.
Amid waning support from the Trump administration, Zelensky has set his sights on greatly improving ties with the wealthy oil and gas monarchies in the Gulf.
He's lately been in the Middle East, even as Iran retaliates on Gulf states said to be hosting US forces, while seeking Ukrainian security assistance. In recent days he has met with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan. The NY Times gave some background context as follows:
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine hailed his Middle East tour to promote anti-drone technologies as a success, saying on Saturday that he had negotiated air defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
In the Mideast conflict, Ukraine has sought to shift its image from a recipient of military aid to a supplier. It sees an opening to export its low-cost, innovative designs created during the war with Russia to compensate for shortages of weapons and ammunition. Ukraine’s military often relies on consumer technologies such as virtual-reality goggles for gamers and off-the-shelf drone components.
This after Trump has indeed signaled willingness to redirect arms meant for Ukraine to the Middle East, where they are urgently needed as part of Operation Epic Fury, and to defend regional allies and increasingly exposed US regional bases.