“好消息”总是相似的:股市上涨……直到它不再上涨。
The "Good News" Is Always The Same: The Stock Market Is Up... Until It Isn't

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-news-always-same-stock-market-until-it-isnt

## 繁荣的幻觉:岌岌可危的体制 查尔斯·休·史密斯认为,今天的经济体制建立在“虚构”——操纵和象征——之上,旨在维持不平等的财富分配并脱离现实。该体制不是通过自然反馈进行自我修正,而是主动避免可能威胁当权者利益的调整。 这是通过优先考虑信号(如股市表现)而非实质来实现的,从而创造了一种稳定和增长的虚假叙事。股市被错误地抬高为*唯一*的经济指标,掩盖了更深层次的不稳定性。这种“幻觉”就像皇帝的新衣——一种被广泛接受的妄想,掩盖了根本的缺乏真实性。 最终,对虚构的依赖会导致“模型崩溃”和不可避免的自我清算,因为人造系统与现实发生冲突。当前由不可持续信贷推动的“一切泡沫”,被呈现为永久的,但历史表明所有泡沫最终都会破裂。认识到这一点需要摆脱大众的妄想,并承认体制固有的不稳定。

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原文

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Cloaking a fake "market" with artifice to maintain its asymmetrical distribution of wealth and income also cloaks its detachment from the real world.

I often refer to the dynamics of self-correction and self-liquidation. Systems that use feedback to rebalance extremes are self-correcting: rather than accelerate as they approach a cliff, they slow down and reorganize to avoid runaway self-reinforcing feedback (i.e. positive feedback), a.k.a. run to failure.

Some things are self-liquidating by design. A mortgage, for example, is intended to be self-liquidating: the monthly payments reduce and eventually extinguish the debt.

Other systems become self-liquidating when artifice becomes the "solution" for those seeking to lock the system down to maintain their share of the spoils. This is the inevitable consequence when a culture veers into the black-hole spiral of moral decay, where integrity is dissolved by maximizing self-interest by any means available.

Responding to real-world feedback threatens to reduce insiders' share of the spoils, and to make sure this doesn't happen, insiders steer the system away from the real world, creating an artificial, synthetic representation of the system that relies not on real-world feedback but on signals and symbolism that can be engineered to serve the interests of those holding the levers of power and influence.

To those benefiting from a system, corrective feedback is anathema because it reduces their share of the spoils. The "solution" is various forms of artifice that maintain the illusion that the system is stable and responsive to the interests of all, when in fact it's been locked in a configuration that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

Self-serving artifice comes in many forms: the gaming of statistics to put lipstick on the real-world pig, the TACO Trade--announce some fabrication as a pending agreement with magical powers, virtue-signaling legislation that changes nothing in how the spoils are being distributed, grandiose claims of technological innovations--innovations that just happen to be owned by a handful of corporations--that will benefit everyone, and so on.

This substitution of artifice for authenticity relies heavily on signals and symbolism. Rather than attempt to manipulate all the complexities of the real-world economy, the stock market is now the signal for the entire economy: if stocks are going up, the economy is good.

This elevation of the stock market as the one true indicator rests on an entire universe of symbolic meanings and mythologies. The stock market is the invisible hand, the magic mechanism of price discovery, the engine of growth that rewards innovation and ingenuity while enriching us all with fabulous new technologies, the perpetual-motion device that makes America the greatest generator of prosperity in history, and so on.

Like all good cons, there is some truth buried beneath the hype. An unmanipulated market does indeed have the potential to reward innovation and ingenuity and generate widespread prosperity.

But the whole point of these mythologies is to cloak a manipulated market in the finery of an authentic market. This bewitchment is akin to the Emperor's New Clothes: a fabrication, a tale, that takes on a life of its own as a mass delusion.

Cloaking a fake "market" with artifice to maintain its asymmetrical distribution of wealth and income also cloaks its detachment from the real world. This is how systems veer into Model Collapse and self-liquidation: the artificial representations, the reliance on easily faked signals and euphoria-inducing mythologies collapse once they collide with reality.

Which brings us to the present, where the stock market has become the economy, the driver of wealth and prosperity as the top 10% who own the majority of stocks can spend freely enough to employ the bottom 90% and pay the taxes needed to fund an out-of-control state sector that lavishes subsidies on every class to stave off a reckoning.

Here is reality: all credit-asset bubbles are inherently unstable and so they pop. While the timing isn't predictable, the collapse of what is intrinsically self-liquidating is entirely predictable.

Here is the Emperor's New Clothing version of mass delusion: the Everything Bubble is permanent and will never pop, and if it does, some agency with god-like powers will rush to the rescue.

But self-liquidating systems are not permanent. Their internal dynamics guarantee the end-game is extinguishment. Here is a projection of the Everything Bubble based on bubble symmetry and scale invariance: what goes up will come down on a similar trajectory.

That the Emperor is buck-naked should not surprise us, but awakening from mass delusion is by its very nature a stunning surprise.

These dynamics are drawn from my Revolution Trilogy.

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