卡尔希(Kalshi) 首席执行官预计美国司法部将起诉内幕交易案件。
Kalshi CEO expects US DOJ to prosecute insider trading cases

原始链接: https://www.semafor.com/article/04/15/2026/kalshi-ceo-tarek-mansour-expects-us-doj-to-prosecute-insider-trading-cases

Kalshi 首席执行官塔里克·曼苏尔预计美国司法部将开始起诉在预测市场(如他的平台)上的内幕交易行为。最近的担忧源于大额、时机把握精准的投注,表明拥有非公开信息的人正在从政治访问或公司公告等事件中获利。 尽管像Kalshi这样的公司正在实施规则来打击这种行为——包括罚款和可能的刑事指控——曼苏尔承认与“不法分子”作斗争是一个持续的挑战。他坚信内幕交易“绝对应该被禁止”,并预计司法部最终将采取行动,从而产生更强的威慑作用。 这个问题源于那些*已经知道*事件结果的人容易获利的可能性,尽管Kalshi正在努力识别和惩罚违规者,但持续的警惕至关重要。

Kalshi 首席执行官预计美国司法部最终将起诉该平台上发生的内幕交易,并表示这是一种联邦犯罪。 这引发了 Hacker News 的讨论,质疑此类预测市场(如 Kalshi 和 Polymarket)的影响。 一个关键的争论点在于,这些市场应该被视为非法赌博还是合法的平台,能够揭示有价值(可能为非公开)的信息。 一些人认为价值在于解读*公开*知识,而另一些人则指出,精明的用户有可能利用非公开信息获利。 评论员也对实际起诉表示怀疑,认为政治因素可能会保护某些人。 值得注意的是,讨论明确了预测市场的法律辩护在于将其归类为受 CFTC 监管的“游戏化期货合约”——而 CFTC 目前正在积极加强对内幕交易的执法。
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原文

The CEO of Kalshi on Wednesday said he expects the US Department of Justice to prosecute cases of insider trading on prediction markets like his own platform.

“If you commit insider trading on Kalshi, that can and will at some point be a federal crime. It is a federal crime,” Tarek Mansour said at Semafor World Economy. “I actually do expect the DOJ to prosecute some of these cases,” he added.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and rival Polymarket have been facing public outcry over concerns about insider trading, spurred by large, suspiciously timed bets on public events.

The concern is that people who already know the answers to questions — for example, how many times US President Donald Trump will visit his Mar-a-Lago estate in April, or when SpaceX will announce its IPO — might trade on those markets, and make an easy buck. Companies have been slow to catch up and implement their own rules preventing it, Semafor reported last month.

Mansour said Kalshi’s view is that insider trading “should absolutely be banned.”

“We can impose fines all the way to criminal prosecution,” he said. “We’ve released some cases. There’s more coming. But over time, it’s going to be a bit of a chicken and the egg. There’s always going to be bad actors. The goal is to just squash them, like find them and deter them.”

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