The Lebanon ceasefire appears to be legitimate and holding, and the biggest evidence of this is that Lebanese citizens themselves are pouring back into the war-ravaged south of the country, seeking to recover to their homes which are in some cases 'unlivable'.
"Thousands of families displaced by weeks of fighting filled the main highway to southern Lebanon on Friday in hopes of returning to their homes, as a 10-day cease-fire in Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah went into effect," writes NY Times on Friday.
This comes after the Rubio-mediated meeting between the Israel and Lebanon governments in Washington D.C. this week, which was a first in decades. However, Hezbollah was not represented and has rejected direct talks with Israel.
The situation and uneasy truce, which has for now seen Israel halt its bombing campaign over Lebanon (though dozens of airstrikes were reported in the south just on Thursday) - has been subject of some confusion and contradictory messaging.
First, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had declared that the fight with Hezbollah is not over, while at the same time confirming Israel's agreement with the 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon.
"One hand holds a weapon; the other is extended for peace," Netanyahu said in a fresh speech. "I will say honestly, we have not yet finished the job," he continued. "There are things we plan to do regarding the remaining rocket threat and the drone threat, which I will not detail."
Israel seeks to "dismantle" Hezbollah, Netanyahu continued, "but this will not be achieved tomorrow. It requires sustained effort, patience, and careful navigation in the diplomatic arena."
President Trump meanwhile in a Friday morning Truth Social message said Israel has been "PROHIBITED" from attacking Israel by the US.
But Trump at the same time contradicted Tehran's stance: "This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezbollah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer," he wrote.
Crucially, he added of the Israeli military: "They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the USA. Enough is enough." The NY Times says this has put Netanyahu in a tough spot:
Now, the prime minister’s critics, and even some of his allies on the right, have seized on what appears plain as day: his inability to resist Mr. Trump’s pressure, not just in pushing to bring the long-distance war with Iran to a close but even in demanding a truce with an enemy directly across Israel’s northern border.
“A cease-fire must come from a position of strength and be an Israeli decision, reflecting leverage that serves negotiations,” said Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff whose new centrist opposition party, Yashar, is gaining in the polls. “A pattern is emerging in which cease-fires are being imposed on us — in Gaza, in Iran and now in Lebanon.”
This actually constitutes some of the toughest talk and restrictions ever imposed on Israel from this administration. This suggests the White House is indeed serious about cobbling together a final offramp.