Summary

• Hormuz latest: Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates.

• Iran's military after Sunday's US seizure of Iran-flagged cargo ship: will "take the necessary action against the US military"

• Vance will try again in Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join - Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid.

• Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway."

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Shipping Traffic Halt Latest

Al Jazeera and others have written the strait is at a virtual standstill currently, after the major Sunday incident which saw the US Navy intercept, fire upon, and board an uncooperative ship which was trying to pass the US-imposed blockade. It was an Iranian-flagged ship which was forcibly stopped in the Gulf of Oman, where some dozen US warships have been patrolling.

Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates. The same publication records that "Oil products tanker Nero, which is under UK sanctions, has left the Gulf and is sailing through the strait, according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and tracking data from the Kpler platform." And: "Two other ships – a chemical tanker and a liquefied natural gas tanker – have also sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately, the data showed."

On Monday a spokesman for Iran's military reiterated a threat to "take the necessary action against the US military" after the Sunday US interdiction. He described that that Iran's military exercised restraint over the incident, not taking immediate action, in order to protect the ship's crew, but will act "once it is ensured that the lives of the families and crew of the vessel attacked by the United States are safeguarded." Apparently the crew's family members are accompanying them aboard the vessel, the statement suggests.

Important Xi Jinping Statement on Hormuz

China's President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

"Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community," Xi said. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

South China Morning Post observes that it was "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28." China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

Second Pakistan Talks Imminent? 

After the Sunday dramatic US seizure of the Iranian-flagged ship, Iran's Foreign Ministry has said the country currently no plans regarding a new round of talks, however, it also said it is reviewing the latest Washington proposal related to a second round of Pakistan-hosted talks. With that, by Monday it reasserted that the transfer of enriched uranium out of the country or into US custody has never been on the table. Tehran is insisting that it won't be transferred anywhere.

This firm stance is after President dramatically shifted his tone over the weekend from strangely and surprisingly somewhat praising Iran's leadership (with statements such as the US could work with them and possibly trust them) to once up again ramping up threats, posting "No more Mr. Nice Guy" on social media. 

Currently there are conflicting reports on whether the Iranian side will actually be there for reported possible Tuesday talks. Pakistan officials say the timing of the talks remains fluid. According to the latest via Associated Press Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation to Islamabad, citing two Pakistan officials. The officials reports "cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad."

Some confused and conflicting signaling, likely purposely so...

The NY Times has declared that JD Vance will try again:

The vice president is scheduled to lead an American delegation back to Islamabad, Pakistan, this week for another round of in-person negotiations with Iran after failing to secure a deal just over a week ago.

Whether the talks even occur seems in dispute. Hours after President Trump announced the trip on Sunday, Iranian state media said that Tehran had not yet agreed to any such meeting. Later, Mr. Trump announced that a Naval destroyer had attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has been threatening major escalation should there be no negotiated settlement, at a moment the two sides' position are very distant especially on the nuclear issue.

Zero Sum Positions on Nuclear Issue

The problem, according to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape is the zero sum logic of it all. "In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation," he wrote over the weekend. "This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power."

"At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not," Pape continues. "There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides."

And more from the analysis: "The same zero-sum logic applies—more visibly and more immediately—to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz functioned as a global commons, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That assumption is now broken. Iran has demonstrated that it can shift from disruption to conditional control, allowing passage under its terms while restricting or denying access when it chooses. The United States, in response, is attempting to preserve open navigation through blockade and interdiction. But these positions cannot be reconciled."