如果停火协议破裂,特朗普考虑实施“大锤行动”,但伊朗已完成重新武装。
Trump Mulls 'Operation Sledgehammer' If Ceasefire Collapses, But Iran Has Re-Armed

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-mulls-operation-sledgehammer-if-iran-ceasefire-collapses-iran-has-re-armed

据报道,如果特朗普总统下令重启轰炸行动,五角大楼正考虑将美国主导的对伊冲突代号从“史诗之怒行动”(Operation Epic Fury)更改为“大锤行动”(Operation Sledgehammer)。此举除了释放升级冲突的信号外,还可能是一种旨在规避《战争权力决议》的战略手段,即通过改名重置国会授权所需的60天期限。 尽管美国官员声称其在该地区的火力已强于2月28日冲突爆发时,但新情报显示伊朗已成功完成重组。机密评估表明,伊朗已恢复了对其大部分导弹阵地的作战控制,这与政府公开宣称伊朗军事力量已被“摧毁”的描述相矛盾。尽管有此情报,特朗普总统仍继续推动清除伊朗的核材料。 随着停火协议岌岌可危,伊朗官员誓言要对任何进一步的侵略行为进行反击。这些事态发展引发了担忧:即便华盛顿两党对这场战争的战略方向和经济影响日益不满,新一轮攻势仍可能使美军陷入一场旷日持久且风险极高的冲突之中。

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原文

The Pentagon is considering renaming the war with Iran from "Operation Epic Fury" to "Operation Sledgehammer" if President Trump orders a renewed full-scale bombing campaign against Iran, according to an NBC News report published Tuesday.

The report came on the eve of day 75 since the US and Israel launched the conflict. US sources touted to NBC that the United States now has greater military capabilities in the region than it did before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. But US intelligence is now also suggesting Iran's missile capability is getting back up and running as well.

US Navy file image

After Iran had clearly withstood the shock and destruction of the opening days and couple weeks of major American and Israeli bombing raids over its cities and airbases, Trump belatedly ordered more warships, carriers, and troops into the region (Marine Expeditionary Force) - after which the blockade of Iranian ports was eventually put in place.

Now amid the heavier US naval and combined forces build-up in the CENTCOM area, "We are in a better spot now than on February 27," a US official said to NBC. "We have more firepower and capability."

The reported name change appears part of the Trump administration's effort to navigate around the War Powers Resolution, which is the 1973 law designed to limit executive war powers and reinforce Congress's constitutional authority to declare war.

According to NBC, the name change would be to underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war, by way of the name change loophole.

While Republicans hold control of the Senate and have a slim majority in the House, there have lately been signs of bipartisan frustration at how the war is going, and the coming financial impact on the American public.

Also, even though the Pentagon has its assets in place if fighting were to resume, fresh reporting in NY Times and elsewhere indicates that Iran too has re-armed and regrouped.

"U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities. Secret new assessments say Iran has operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that its military remains far stronger than President Trump has asserted," NY Times reports.

The report also indicates, "The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities."

This further opens up the possibility that US forces could sink into protracted quagmire should the White House choose to escalate the conflict through a renewed bombing campaign, or else launching some kind of ultra high-risk ground operation to recover Iran's nuclear material.

Trump is still insisting on taking Iran's "nuclear dust" out of the country, but how that precisely happens is anyone's guess - and would likely prove to be a long shot.

On Tuesday, speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said  his country's military stands ready to "teach a lesson" to any aggressor as Trump has said the ceasefire is hanging by a thread. "Our armed forces are ready to respond and to teach a lesson for any aggression," he said on social media. "A bad strategy and bad decisions always lead to bad results - the world already understands this."

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