高盛指出美国该地区抵押贷款违约率上升令人担忧
Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flags-troubling-delinquency-rise-across-us-region

3月份,受季节性因素和退税影响,全国抵押贷款拖欠率下降了37个基点,降至3.35%。尽管情况略有改善,但严重拖欠(逾期90天以上)的贷款数量同比增加了15.4万笔,目前已波及1.6%的活跃抵押贷款。 联邦住房管理局(FHA)贷款是这一趋势的主要驱动因素,在严重逾期账户中占比高达创纪录的55%。高盛分析师杰森·阿科斯塔(Jason Acosta)指出,这种财务压力在地理上高度集中,深南部地区(尤其是密西西比州和路易斯安那州)的拖欠率最高,其次是阿拉巴马州、德克萨斯州和印第安纳州,这些地区的拖欠水平也较高。 虽然全国数据表明市场略有回升,但专家指出差距正在扩大。数据显示出一个令人担忧的趋势:尽管近期美国房价有所上涨,但高严重程度的抵押贷款困境依然高企,且负担不成比例地落在了低收入地区。

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原文

Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers.

The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago.

The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year.

A lot of questions here...

Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day."

The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others.

"On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said.

He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+."

Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?

Latest on the housing market:

The read we have here is that mortgage distress is becoming increasingly concentrated in lower-income Southern states, even as the national delinquency rate improved modestly overall.

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