核能建设提速:高盛将小型模块化反应堆(SMRs)纳入预测范畴
Nuclear Buildout Accelerates With Goldman Now Including SMRs Into Forecast

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nuclear-buildout-accelerates-goldman-now-including-smrs-forecast

高盛最新的《核能金块》报告指出,在全球大型项目和新兴小型模块化反应堆(SMR)的推动下,核能正在加速扩张。北美的发展尤为显著,近期里程碑包括南卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达州反应堆的使用寿命延长至 80 年,以及加拿大新的合作努力和美国潜在的项目重启。 分析师布莱恩·李(Brian Lee)更新了高盛的展望,将小型模块化反应堆纳入其中,预计到 2045 年其装机容量将达到 46 吉瓦。此次扩张预计将使长期铀需求增长 17%。因此,李警告称,2025 年至 2045 年间将出现 23 亿磅的巨大累计铀供应缺口。 随着铀现货价格稳定在 80 美元中高位,且长期定价保持在 90 美元附近,该报告认为公用事业公司正越来越多地接受更高的成本以确保燃料供应。鉴于供应紧张和反应堆建设的强劲增长,铀价在可预见的未来仍将保持强劲的看涨前景。

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原文

Goldman's latest edition of "Nuclear Nuggets: Global Reactor Tracker" reinforces that the buildout of the cleanest and most reliable form of so-called "green" energy, nuclear power, continues to gain momentum. The theme we first laid out in December 2020 continues to broaden, with buildouts accelerating across both large-scale and small modular reactors, even as the growing risk of a massive uranium supply deficit emerges.

Focusing on the latest North American reactor progress and announcements:

4/16/2026 - Canada - Bruce Power has signed an MoU with SaskPower to share its experience in large-scale nuclear reactors, including project development and long-term operations, as Saskatchewan evaluates large reactor technologies alongside its SMR program. The agreement formalizes information-sharing and aligns provincial and federal nuclear strategies.

4/24/2026 - United States - Duke Energy’s Robinson nuclear power plant has been cleared for extended operation to 80 years, after the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission completed its fastest-ever subsequent license renewal review. The approval allows the 759 MW Robinson Unit 2 in South Carolina to operate until 2050 under new accelerated federal timelines.

4/29/2026 - United States - The U.S. NRC has approved subsequent license renewals for St. Lucie Units 1 and 2, clearing the Florida Power & Light plant to operate for up to 80 years, with Unit 1 licensed to 2056 and Unit 2 to 2063. The decision follows aging-management reviews for the extended operating period and secures the long-term operation of the two pressurized water reactors.

5/5/2026 - United States - Brookfield and The Nuclear Company have formed a JV to manage the potential completion of the two VC Summer AP1000 units in South Carolina, supporting due diligence and execution if the project proceeds, subject to approvals and a final investment decision.

One of the biggest shifts in the note penned by analyst Brian Lee is the addition of small modular reactors to Goldman's uranium supply-and-demand model, which forecasts cumulative SMR deployments of nearly 46 GW by 2045.

In turn, this would lift its 2045 nuclear generation forecast by about 6% and create an additional 62 million pounds of uranium demand, or a 17% upside to its prior long-term demand estimate.

Global reactor construction tracker, by country:

Years under construction, by country:

Chinese reactors, years under construction:

Lee said uranium spot prices stabilized in the mid-to-high $80s per pound after rebounding in April, supported by buying activity in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. Term pricing held near $90 per pound, signaling that utilities continue to accept higher long-term pricing deals.

As new reactors come online, Lee warns of a cumulative uranium supply deficit of 2.3 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045.

Uranium prices will be up and to the right for quite some time...

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